A Turkish delegation led by Ankara’s Special Representative for the Normalization of Relations with Armenia Serdar Kilic is set to enter Armenia via the Alican border crossing in eastern Türkiye, marking the second official crossing of diplomats across the land border to hold talks.

During Armenia’s occupation of Azerbaijani territories in the First Karabakh War in the 1990s, Türkiye cut off trade and diplomatic relations with Yerevan and closed its land border in 1993

In 2020, during the 44-day war, with Türkiye’s support, Azerbaijan regained its occupied territories in the Karabakh region and elsewhere from Armenian forces, contributing to a reduction in tensions between Baku and Yerevan.

Most recently, Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met at the White House, where they signed three key memoranda of understanding, which many experts see as a prelude to a lasting peace treaty between the two nations.

Easing Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions has also created a rising possibility of normalisation between the Turkish and Armenian leaderships, prompting Kilic and his delegation to hold talks with Yerevan.

The talks are expected to achieve a mutual understanding on several issues, including reopening borders and developing trade relations through the implementation of the strategic Zangezur Corridor. 

“Both countries will benefit from a normalisation,” says Murat Ersavci, director of TEPAV’s international research centre, who served Ankara in various capacities as a top Turkish diplomat in many countries, including Australia and Ireland. 

In 2022, Ruben Rubinyan, deputy speaker of the Armenian parliament and Yerevan’s appointed representative for the talks, held his first normalisation meeting with Kılıç in Moscow.

In the first round, both sides exchanged views on the general framework of the process. They agreed that the ultimate goal was full normalisation and that this process would continue without preconditions, according to Ersavci. 

Since then, Kilic’s delegation and his Armenian counterparts held three more meetings in Vienna, and a fifth one took place at the Alican/Margara border crossing between the two states on July 30, 2024.  

Opening borders  

Increasing contacts between the two sides signalled that Ankara and Yerevan are getting closer to a normalisation deal. As a result, this week’s expected meeting between the two delegations at the border crossing is crucial, Ersavci tells TRT World.

“I expect that this border crossing will be opened up in upcoming months. If both states open their respective bordergate, this will lead to an enormous economic revival in border regions in both countries. ”

Many Caucasus analysts have long noted that a normalisation agreement between Armenia and Türkiye largely depends on Yerevan’s concession of Azerbaijani territories, including Karabakh, to Baku and its participation in the Zangezur Corridor project, which passes through Armenian territory connecting Turkish lands with Azerbaijan, reaching the Caspian Sea. 

“We have already passed those two milestones, reaching a settlement on these matters,” says Ersavci, referring to the recent memorandum of understanding between the two states in Washington, which offered that Armenia will be part of the Zangezur Corridor project. 

Armenia’s Pashinyan government has already recognised that Karabakh is part of Azerbaijani sovereignty. 

“I am among people who believe that both sides will reach a positive outcome as a result of these negotiations under Kilic’s delegation,” says the retired Turkish ambassador. 

Kamer Kasim, a professor of international relations at Abant Izzet Baysal University, also observes that a roadmap between the two states has been established due to a growing agreement on the Karabakh issue and other matters such as the Zangezur Corridor. 

“Once the details regarding the corridor are clarified, a major obstacle to normalisation will be removed,” Kasim tells TRT World. 

Both sides will not discuss any matters related to the 1915 events, bloody clashes between Turks and Armenians under the Ottoman Empire during WWI, because both sides believe this long-standing political problem needs to be addressed by historians and experts, not politicians, according to Ersavci. 

“When Richard Giragosian, an Armenian academic and a political advisor to Pashinyan, visited Türkiye several months ago, I asked him a question about the American Armenian diaspora’s continuing demands from Türkiye over the 1915 events. He replied to me that Armenia is not obliged to respond to the demands of that diaspora,” Ersavci says. 

From this perspective, opening borders is the initial step towards Türkiye-Armenia normalisation, according to Ersavci. He suggests that as a preliminary move, they might choose to open borders to third-country nationals who wish to visit both Armenia and Türkiye, which would boost tourism in both countries. 

From conflict to normalisation

Although both sides still face many obstacles to normalisation, Fuad Chiragov, a Baku-based Azerbaijani expert on Caucasian conflicts, emphasises the importance of reaching this stage between Armenia and Türkiye despite numerous historical grievances. 

“It is important to recall the long road that brought us to this moment and to recognise how this outcome was achieved. The simple answer lies in the consistent synchronization of Türkiye’s and Azerbaijan’s regional policies,” Chiragov tells TRT World. 

Over the past three decades, Azerbaijan and Türkiye have developed a strong alliance, spanning military affairs to economic relations. 

Türkiye was able to bring Caspian Basin energy resources westward through Azerbaijan and Georgia with the landmark Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, facilitating transport infrastructure that links Europe to Asia. 

According to Chiragov, energy routes like BTC and increased cooperation on the Zangezur Corridor between Ankara and Baku have ultimately played a decisive role in resolving the conflict involving Azerbaijan and Armenia. 

“In the past, outside powers invested significant effort and resources in attempting to separate Türkiye–Armenia relations from Azerbaijan–Armenia relations. 

“Yet the brotherhood between Türkiye and Azerbaijan, rooted in the motto ‘one nation, two states’ has withstood every challenge and outmanoeuvred all external attempts to divide the two tracks,” he says. 

Taken together, these achievements demonstrate that Türkiye’s policies in the region have been time-tested and effective, Chiragov added. 

“The lessons and principles underpinning this approach must remain a priority for the future.”