Nigeria's nearly two dozen political parties begin holding their presidential primaries starting from Saturday to choose their candidates for national elections in January next year.
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is expected to field incumbent President Bola Tinubu, 74, to run for a second term.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which ruled Nigeria for 16 years, and the Labour Party were the main threats in the last polls. They lost to the APC, which has held the presidency since 2015.
Now the PDP is splintered into two factions, while the Labour party has collapsed in recent years.
Last election's numbers
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) have in the past months emerged as the new and most vocal opposition voices.
Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar and Rabiu Kwankwaso – who unsuccessfully challenged Tinubu in the last election – initially banded together in an ADC-led grouping. But it has since disintegrated.
Tinubu won the 2023 poll with 36.6% of the vote. Abubakar took 29%, Obi 25% and Kwankwaso just over 6%. Analysts said a repeat was possible.
The wheels came off the idea of a united opposition a few weeks ago, when Obi and Kwankwaso switched parties to join the NDC, as their supporters rallied around what they have dubbed the "OK" movement.
Leadership tussles
The PDP, ADC and Labour Party are currently in court over internal leadership tussles.
The opposition figures have blamed the infighting on alleged infiltration of their ranks by the ruling party. There is no proof of such subterfuge.
The PDP – which was in power between 1999 and 2015 – has been the hardest hit, in terms of representation in elective politics. It is down to just one governor, having had 13 in 2023.
Opposition efforts have also been hampered by ethnicity and geography.
Dynamics
Nigeria is roughly divided between a Christian-majority south and a mostly Muslim north.
Tinubu, a southerner, took up the presidency following northerner Muhammadu Buhari's two terms. For some, that passed power back to the south.
Given that many see it as still the south's "turn" after Buhari's eight years in power, analysts say the opposition may have a chance if they unite behind a southern candidate.
