Guineans are voting on Sunday to elect a new president in the country’s first election since a 2021 coup, as analysts say a weakened opposition will result in a likely win for incumbent military leader General Mamadi Doumbouya.
The election is the culmination of a transition process that began four years ago after Doumbouya ousted President Alpha Condé. He faces a fragmentated opposition with eight candidates challenging him.
Despite Guinea’s rich mineral resources — including as the world’s biggest exporter of bauxite, used to make aluminum — more than half of its 15 million people are experiencing record levels of poverty and food insecurity, according to the World Food Program.
The election is the latest such vote among African countries that have seen a surge in coups in recent years. At least 10 countries in the continent have experienced soldiers forcefully taking power after accusing elected leaders of failing to provide good governance and security for citizens.
Excluded candidates
About 6.7 million registered voters are expected to cast ballots at roughly 24,000 polling stations nationwide, with results expected within 48 hours. There will be a runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the votes.
More than 50 political parties were dissolved last year in a move authorities said was to “clean up the political chessboard” despite widespread criticism.
A total of nine candidates are contesting the election, and Doumbouya’s closest challenger is the little-known Yero Baldé of the Democratic Front of Guinea party, who was education minister under Condé.
Two opposition candidates, former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté and former government minister Ousmane Kaba, were excluded on technical grounds while longtime opposition leaders Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Toure have been forced into exile.
Doumbouya’s major project
While Baldé has hinged his campaign on promises of governance reforms, anti-corruption efforts and economic growth, Doumbouya has built his around major infrastructure projects and reforms launched since taking power four years ago.
The Doumbouya’s most important project has been the Simandou iron ore project, a mega-mining project at the world’s largest iron ore deposit which began production last month after decades of delays.
Authorities say that a national development plan tied to the Simandou project aims to create tens of thousands of jobs and diversify the economy through investments in agriculture, education, transport, technology and health.
