Why Trump's G20 boycott tests multilateral resolve more than host South Africa

South Africa clearly wasn't biting the rage bait when US President Donald Trump declared at an event in Miami on November 5 that neither he nor any American official would attend the G20 leaders' summit in Johannesburg later this month.

The tone and tenor of Trump's announcement – he termed it a "total disgrace" that South Africa was hosting the event, citing widely discredited claims about the supposed killing of white people in that country – sounded eerily familiar.

Days earlier, he had targeted Nigeria with allegations of a "Christian genocide" and designated it a "Country of Particular Concern" in what increasingly looks like a bid to placate evangelical groups and lawmakers in the US.

Trump's latest rant against an African nation seeks to digress from the historical significance of the November 22-23 summit being held on the continent for the first time.

Experts say Trump's boycott of the Johannesburg G20 summit is less about his concerns over South Africa's domestic policies and more a reflection of growing attacks on multilateral bodies that give Africa a chance to engage with the world's richest nations.

Other countries have seized on the US's position as an opportunity to harden their own stances, particularly the European Union.

"These are early signs. I think more negative developments are going to come when members of these bodies choose not to participate for selfish reasons," Prof David Monyae of the University of Johannesburg tells TRT Afrika.

"It speaks to an imperialistic notion where Africa should be an appendage of the Western world, something that the Global South is fighting through calls for transformation of multilateral institutions like the World Bank and the UN Security Council."

Diplomatic prognosis

Experts warn that the US's absence at the G20 summit could prove disruptive and dent the outcome and legacy of the Johannesburg summit due to a lack of binding consensus, perceived or otherwise, on the issues discussed.

The boycott by the G20's wealthiest member stems from tensions between Pretoria and Washington following a tense Oval Office meeting in May, where Trump raised claims about the killing of Afrikaners (descendants of the first colonial settlers) and alleged confiscation of their land.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, backed by a section of Afrikaners, stoutly contested the claims, only for the US to offer refugee status to Afrikaners wishing to settle there. Trump doubled down on his campaign recently, saying that South Africa should be removed from the G20.

Pretoria initially held back from a formal response to the US boycott of the summit, waiting until last  Wednesday for President Ramaphosa to hit back with a statement that "boycotting never really works".

"The United States, by not being at the G20, must never think that we are not going to go on with the G20. The G20 will go on. All other heads of state will be here. In the end, we will take fundamental decisions, and their absence is their loss," Ramaphosa told journalists.

Critical policy platform

The G20 is a group of leading economies, comprising 19 countries and two regional bodies – the European Union and the African Union. South Africa is the only member state from Africa.

G20 members represent 85% of the world's GDP and about two-thirds of its population. Its presidency rotates annually, with the US supposed to take the baton from South Africa after the summit.

Pretoria wants to use the summit to champion Global South priorities under the theme of "Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability", which the Trump administration has labelled as anti-American.

Observers argue that the US could renege on decisions made in Johannesburg and opt to start from a clean slate at the next summit.

Already, talks held in February by finance ministers and central bankers on global economic issues ended without consensus due to the absence of key figures, including the US finance chief. A meeting of health ministers last week also concluded without a draft declaration on global access to health after US officials walked out.

"It is a pity that in this case, participation has been weaponised by powerful countries to weaken a previously bold ministerial declaration that stood strong in the themes identified by the South African government," Javid Abdelmoneim, president of the medical charity Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières), told journalists after the health ministers meeting.

Isolating South Africa

South Africa's efforts to mend its relationship with the US have failed. Trump's discontent lies in the African nation's position on Palestine, which has seen Ramaphosa's government take the US's ally, Israel, to the International Court of Justice over acts of genocide.

Pretoria's involvement in the BRICS bloc is also a sticking point, with the grouping being seen as a counterweight to the US-led world order.

Ramaphosa's government is negotiating for a better tariff deal with the US after the Trump administration slapped a 30% import tax on South Africa in August – the highest rate in sub-Saharan Africa.

The South African president said earlier this month that he was looking forward to concluding an agreement "fairly soon".

Experts reckon that South Africa needs to work with other emerging markets within BRICS and like-minded countries to counter the impact of an impasse that looks likely to drag.

"Realignment of these relations will be the core business of the day for South Africa," explains Prof Monyae. "These Trump lies won't stand. I think the world knows already. There would be damage, no doubt, given that he is the head of the world's most powerful country, but it would not stand in the long term."

South Africa handing the G20 presidency to the US after the summit would mark the return of the baton to the Global North following the presidencies of Brazil, India and Indonesia. Trump's boycott of the landmark Johannesburg summit has already ensured there will be no ceremonial handover.