Why Al Fasher's fall is Sudan's worst nightmare come true

Al Fasher, the historic administrative capital of North Darfur, has fallen, and with it has come a wave of ethnic cleansing by the militia that has shaken Sudan to the core.

After nearly two years of siege, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) this week captured the army headquarters in this city of close to half a million people, completing its control over all five state capitals in the vast, resource-rich region.

What followed has left Sudan and the international community reeling in shock.

At a hospital, at least 460 people died in what the World Health Organisation (WHO) described as one of the deadliest assaults on a health facility since the war began.

Even children have been a target of the most heinous forms of violence. Thousands are fleeing, many into neighbouring Chad, where living conditions for displaced people are already inadequate.

"Darfur means the land of the Fur – the Zaghawa, Tunjur and other African tribes," explains Sulaima Elkhalifa Sharif, director of the Combating Violence Against Women and Children Unit in Sudan's transitional government.

"Now, they (the militia) are celebrating that the Dar (land) of the Fur will become the Dar of the invaders. This effectively means the extermination of African tribes within Darfur. For women and children especially, it can't get worse than this. They have been raping children and killing them afterwards."

The pattern mirrors how the RSF – led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemedti – has turned its turf war with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023 into a humanitarian catastrophe that many international agencies call the worst in history.

"Evidently, RSF has been systematically and structurally on the orders of its command, committing crimes against humanity," Sharif tells TRT Afrika.

The RSF released footage showing its fighters celebrating inside what used to be Sudan's military headquarters. Army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's transitional government has been repeatedly demanding that the world take action.

Strategic prize

For the militia, Al Fasher is more than a trophy of war.

Historian Tarig Mohamed Nour points out that capturing the administrative and economic capital of North Darfur enables the RSF and its allies to control supply routes, transportation corridors and communication networks across the region, providing logistical depth, access to reinforcements and a launch pad for making inroads into neighbouring areas.

The fall of a major city is also a way of demonstrating that the militia is no longer confined to rural warfare. It can impose its authority on urban centres, giving it local political leverage to influence tribal groups and reshape regional alliances.

Then there is access to government offices, financial resources and infrastructure, all of which are essential for consolidating territorial control.

Besides all this, wresting control of the military headquarters fuels propaganda, which shores up morale among fighters and helps attract potential recruits.

In strategic terms, this potentially forces the Sudanese army to divert attention and resources into attempts to recapture the city, stretching its defences elsewhere.

Fragile grip

The RSF has already declared an unrecognised parallel government in Darfur, while the SAF remains in control of the north, east and centre of Sudan, including the capital city of Khartoum.

But Nour believes the RSF's control over Al Fasher is far from guaranteed. After all, capturing a city is one thing; governing it is another.

Urban populations that are traumatised, hostile or under siege can make long-term control extremely difficult.

Also, the fall of Al Fasher has rallied the Sudanese people around the army, with many declaring their readiness to respond to general military mobilisation, just as it happened after the fall of Madani and Sennar, and in the resistance against the Janjaweed militias.

Analysts believe the RSF being a coalition of militias with varied command structures is its Achilles heel.

Weak central control makes violations of international law more likely and reduces operational efficiency. War-crime allegations against RSF fighters could invite targeted sanctions, freezing of assets, crippling restrictions on arms supplies, and external support.

Reports of atrocities could also push regional actors or international backers to reduce or withdraw their support. Even pragmatic partners may reconsider open cooperation if the militia's image becomes too toxic.

International response

The United Nations has condemned the relentless militia attacks, describing the situation as extremely difficult. UN secretary-general António Guterres warned during the UN summit in Qatar that the situation in Sudan was spiralling out of control.

RSF commander Dagalo acknowledged "violations" by his fighters in Al Fasher, claiming that an investigative committee had been constituted to identify those responsible for these.

Sudanese Prime Minister Kamil Idris urged the UN Security Council to act on what he called "RSF's war crimes".

On November 3, the International Criminal Court announced that it had begun taking steps to collect and preserve evidence related to reports of mass killings, rape and other atrocities in Al Fasher.

In a statement, the Office of the Prosecutor said it was "deeply concerned and gravely alarmed" by accounts of widespread violence allegedly committed by the RSF. "If substantiated, these acts could amount to war crimes, and crimes against humanity under the Rome Statute."

Sudan has been bearing the wages of war since April 15, 2023, when fighting broke out over a plan to integrate the paramilitary RSF into SAF as part of a phase-wise transition to civilian rule. Since then, more than 20,000 Sudanese have been killed and over 15 million people displaced, according to UN data.