'Christian genocide': Why Trump's salvo at Nigeria is flawed and fraught

When US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he was ordering the Pentagon to prepare for military strikes against Nigeria, officials in Abuja were stunned.

Trump's accusation: Africa's most populous nation was allowing a "genocide" against Christians.

The claim, which President Bola Tinubu's government promptly dismissed as untrue, ignited a diplomatic firestorm that escalated rapidly as Trump designated Nigeria a "Country of Particular Concern" over the alleged severe violations of religious freedom.

The Trump administration's allegation aligns with pressure from US evangelical groups and some lawmakers, who have long pushed for sanctions against Nigerian officials they accuse of enabling "mass murder of Christians".

So, what's the 'Truth' that Trump's 'Social' cloaks?

Nigeria's population of 220 million is split almost evenly between Christians and Muslims, with the latter predominant in the north and the former mainly in the south.

Misrepresentation of facts

Nigeria has been bedevilled by a long-running armed conflict across its central and northern regions. The military battles terrorist groups and bandit gangs in the northeast and northwest, both regions that are predominantly Muslim.

This effectively means Muslims are often the victims of these depredations.

Trump hasn't specified which killings he was referring to, but his throwaway claim about a "Christian genocide" appear centred on the deadly conflicts between farmers and herders in central Nigeria.

Security analysts say the violence there is fundamentally about access to resources. Both Christians and Muslims fall victim to such conflict without distinction.

The resources at stake include grazing pastures and critical and strategic minerals like lithium and gold.

Backlash against bombast

Trump's narrative oversimplifies a complex security issue and risks deepening division and instability in Nigeria, experts warn.

Nigerians across the political divide agree that Trump is wrong in his framing, which can only result in a lose-lose situation for everybody, according to those who spoke to TRT Afrika.

The American President's threat of military action against Nigeria, delivered in characteristically shoot-from-the-hip fashion, also risks alienating his administration from one of Africa's largest economies and a crucial partner in counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel region.

"The more we peddle these narratives, the more we play into the hands of terrorists, and the more the US and its allies will alienate Nigerians. In the end, they will lack partners to fight terrorism alongside them," Bulama Bukarti, a Nigerian political analyst, tells TRT Afrika.

Reaffirmation of challenges

Following Trump's threat, President Tinubu said his government was committed to working with partners to resolve the security crisis.

But experts say the odds are stacked against the government in the deadly cycles of violence that have caused havoc over the last two decades.

The military is stretched across several theatres of conflict – fighting Boko Haram in the northeast, Al Qaeda-linked groups in the northwest, and bandits in the central region.

The numerical strength of the Nigerian military hasn't increased in proportion to the security challenges due to lack of funding, while the number of police officers is thinly scattered across the country.

"The Nigerian army is still under-equipped. It lacks basic resources, including weapons and intelligence capabilities," says Bukarti.

"There is very little inter-agency cooperation in a country with more than 17 security and law-enforcement agencies, all of whom have a role to play in restoring security."

Escaping the firing line

Being listed as a "Country of Particular Concern" was a major blow to Nigeria, and the consequences could be devastating in a country experiencing its worst economic crisis in decades.

Experts say getting Nigeria's relations with the Trump administration on an even keel will require Abuja to take deliberate steps to mend fences with Washington.

"First is for the Nigerian government to let cooler heads prevail, to not confront Trump in the way Trump is approaching us. The Nigerian government cannot pay Trump with his own coin," says Bukarti.

"It's better for them to engage diplomatically to show that all Nigerians are suffering from the violence and work with the US constructively to see if there are ways in which they can support us in terms of weapons, training and intelligence."

Nigeria's presidential spokesperson has since indicated that Trump's claims were a "miscommunication", hoping leaders of the two countries would "iron out" their differences.

Trump's transactional approach

The Trump administration has been striking deals with African countries to accept third-country deportees in his crackdown on undocumented migrants.

Ghana, Eswatini, Rwanda and South Sudan have received such deportees. Uganda has agreed to a deal but has yet to receive any.

Nigeria refused to participate in the deportation programme, and experts link that decision to the loss of goodwill with the Trump administration.

Experts say Trump's transactional approach is meant to pressure leaders and extract concessions from them, a tactic he recently put to use against South Africa with claims of white genocide - which Pretoria denies as being inaccurate.