Somaliland recognition shows how Israel’s strategic destabilisation extends to Horn of Africa

Situated on the Horn of Africa, Somalia is a country of great geopolitical importance. 

Overlooking the approach to the Bab el Mandeb Strait, Somalia is at a junction where the Indian Ocean meets the Red Sea, leading up to the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal. 

At a time when global trade security in the Red Sea is exceptionally vulnerable, Mogadishu’s position is at the centre of overlapping security, commercial, and geopolitical calculations, drawing the attention of regional and extra-regional powers alike.

In 1991, during the height of the Somali civil war, Somaliland, Somalia’s northern state, unilaterally declared its independence, seceding from the rest of the country.

Up until 26 December 2025, Somaliland had no international recognition by any UN members, until Israel announced its recognition of Hargeisa as independent through a video call with the self-proclaimed president, becoming the first one to do so.

Immediately after its decision, Tel Aviv received widespread condemnation, with analysts doubting its strategic benefits. 

Analysts also questioned Tel Aviv’s motives, suggesting the recognition is aimed more at demonstrating influence in the Red Sea region than at advancing diplomatic efforts.

Israel’s questionable sincerity 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tel Aviv would move quickly to broaden cooperation with Somaliland in areas such as agriculture, health and technology, and added that his decision was in ‘’the spirit of the Abraham Accords”.

Abdihakim Kalale, an analyst on the Horn of Africa, says Tel Aviv’s step lacks any grasp of the sociopolitical realities.

‘’Israel’s recognition of Somaliland overlooks the complex realities on the ground and fails to properly account for Somalia’s deeply rooted clan dynamics. Somaliland isn’t a unified political or social entity; its structure is shaped by diverse clans with differing interests,’’ Kalale tells TRT World.

‘’Israel’s move risks empowering one political elite while excluding key communities that strongly oppose secession.’’

Beyond questions of local fallout, analysts also stress the limits of recognition itself and what Israel’s announcement can realistically change.

Yunus Turhan, African affairs expert and associate professor at Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University, says Israel’s announcement via video conference is “essentially a symbolic diplomatic step”.

‘’Israel's initiative is less about ensuring Somaliland becomes a globally recognised state and more about sending a message intended to reassure certain local and regional actors on a psychological and political level,’’ Turhan adds.

Israel’s real motives

Gokhan Batu, an independent analyst on Israel and security issues, argues the success of this move ultimately hinges on Washington’s approval, and that its timing, ahead of the Netanyahu-Trump meeting, is deliberate rather than coincidental.

‘’This move would allow Israel to establish influence in an extremely strategic location along the Red Sea. In doing so, Israel would gain a foothold in one of the world’s most critical corridors for global trade, while also acquiring a potential forward platform from which it could conduct intelligence activities, most likely directed against the Houthis in Yemen.’’ 

Batu states that Tel Aviv’s recent moves can’t be viewed separately from Türkiye’s engagement in the region.

‘’From Tel Aviv’s perspective, the primary strategic challenge it faces today is the growing rivalry with Türkiye in the Middle East, an understanding that is largely constructed rather than grounded in the actual regional balance.’’ 

‘’Consequently, Israeli policy thinking reflects a growing sense of strategic encirclement, in which Türkiye is identified as a key actor capable of constraining Israel’s freedom of action.

‘’Unlike Iran, Türkiye represents a qualitatively different challenge, having diverged sharply in terms of military-technological capacity, operational reach, and strategic culture,’’ he says. 

Africa’s assessment

Shortly after the recognition, statements of solidarity and support for Somalia poured. 21 Arab, Islamic and African nations issued a joint statement denouncing Israel’s ‘’full and blatant disregard for international law’’. 

The African Union rejected the step, warning that it risks setting a dangerous precedent. 

Even the US, a longtime ally of Israel, distanced itself from Israel’s recent action, with US President Donald Trump saying he won’t follow Netanyahu’s step.

Tunc Demirtas, SETA foreign policy researcher and an analyst on the Horn of Africa, says the condemnations were expected.

‘’At the heart of the African Union's line and the fundamental reflex of the international system lies the principle of ‘territorial integrity of states.’ Recognition is condemned because it does not comply with this principle,’’ Demirtas tells TRT World. 

‘’But beyond this, condemnations must also be read as a reaction to the possibility of a precedent effect. Once this door is opened, it will become easier to politicise ‘de facto areas’ in many countries in Africa, such as Sudan, Mali and Morocco, as well as in other crisis regions.’’

Strategic destabilisation policy

Turhan says Tel Aviv’s security thinking rests on the belief that Israel can strengthen its own safety by fostering instability in its surrounding environment.

‘’This approach has been clearly observed in Israel's aggressive and interventionist policies towards actors such as Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and Qatar,’’ he notes.

‘’The Somaliland move has the potential to motivate more than 30 separatist movements currently active in 27 countries on the African continent.’’

Kalale says that Israel’s actions contribute absolutely nothing to the general well-being of the Somali people. 

‘’This action does not promote Somali unity, regional peace, or social cohesion. On the contrary, it threatens to undermine stability in the Horn of Africa and may fuel division, tension, and conflict,” Kalale adds.

“Therefore, it brings no benefit to the Somali people or to broader East African stability.”