What Mogadishu's first direct suffrage in nearly 60 years means for democracy

It's been 58 years since Somalia's then President, Aden Abdulle Osman, gracefully accepted electoral defeat and handed the reins to Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke in what is acknowledged as Africa's first peaceful transfer of power.

This December 25, Mogadishu's democratic arc undergoes another significant shift with the country's first direct vote since that era ended, arriving as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term nears its May 2026 conclusion and parliament's mandate expires a month earlier.

The transition to a historic one-person-one-vote election, the first in nearly six decades, marks a break from the indirect system Somalia has used since 2012, when the country returned to electoral politics after two decades of state collapse.

But the move has been fraught with challenges, primarily the opposition's threat to initiate an "alternative electoral process" as it pushes for a broader dialogue on the country's democratic roadmap.

Burden of inheritance

While Somalia's journey to this moment is rooted in the peaceful 1967 transfer of power by former President Abdulle Osman, what happened in the interregnum has also had a bearing on where the country stands today.

Two years after taking office, Sharmarke was assassinated, paving the way for a coup d'état that stalled democratic progress for decades. The two controlled, single-party elections in 1979 and 1984 were more blips in the system rather than any sincere effort to restore democracy.

It wasn't until just 13 years ago that Somalia held its first proper election since that turbulent era. The process involved a parliament elected by traditional elders, marking the start of a process aimed at institutionalising an evolving indirect election model.

The 2016 election differed from the one in 2012, involving 14,025 delegates who elected members of the Lower House, known as the House of the People. By 2022, the number of delegates had increased.

In this system, the 275 elected members of the People's Assembly, along with the 54 members of the Upper House, collectively elect the President.

The indirect process is governed by strict protocols. Clans submit their list of delegates to the Federal Election Independent Commission, beginning with the registration of 135 elders tasked with selecting the MPs.

Each seat must be contested by at least two aspirants. Elections for MPs are held within regional administrations, except for those representing Somaliland and Banadir, which take place in Mogadishu.

Once the federal member states and clans finalise their representatives, the lists are verified and sent to the capital. On conclusion of the polls, the President-elect appoints a Prime Minister within 30 days, who then gets another month-long window to form a government.

Direct-vote dynamics

Somalia's shift from this indirect model began this April with the Independent National Elections and Boundaries Commission (INEBC) rolling out voter registration in Mogadishu. More than 900,000 citizens registered as voters during the stipulated period. 

The demographics of the electorate make for compelling analysis. As many as 94% of registered voters in Mogadishu are below 44 years of age, with 63% of them being male. Mogadishu's registered electoral strength is also the highest in the city's history.

This surge in civic engagement is mirrored by robust political competition, with 20 political parties fielding 1,600 candidates across the 390 seats at stake.

The authorities have set up 510 polling stations across the capital for the December 25 vote, making transparency a priority.  Election observers have been deputed to each station and 100-odd journalists have received accreditation to cover the historic polls.

"We are fully ready to conduct the polls and confident the process will be successful. This vote is meant to give the Somali people the opportunity to exercise their constitutional right to freely choose their leaders," INEBC chairperson Abdikarim Ahmed Hassan said.

"It is an honour for us to have the trust of the public and all state institutions as we work together to deliver this historic one-person, one-vote election."

The Somalia Civil Aviation Authority has announced that Mogadishu's Aden Adde International Airport will remain shut for 24 hours on December 25 to facilitate necessary security and logistical arrangements for the Banadir regional elections.

Opposition's concerns

Amid the frisson of optimism all around, the opposition continues to harbour reservations about the process.

Former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, who founded the Tayo Political Party, issued a statement in which he said it was unfortunate that the country still lacks "a broadly agreed political direction".

"I oppose and strongly call for avoiding any unlawful term extensions, elections controlled by a single political faction, self-serving political arrangements, or any actions that could push the country toward the creation of two parallel governments," he said, addressing the current dispensation.

The Somali Future Council, a coalition of the regional leaders of Puntland and Jubaland and the opposition Somali Salvation Forum, gathered in Kismayo recently and issued a scathing critique of the ongoing electoral process, describing it as being driven by a "single political group" in a way that circumvents the Provisional Constitution and violates the rights of the people of Banadir.

The council, however, expressed its readiness to engage in dialogue with President Mohamud. They called for a consensus-based electoral commission and a process that is "transparent, credible and more advanced" than the one in 2022. Another demand is to strengthen regional representation.

To achieve this, the council has urged the President to convene all political stakeholders by January 20, 2026, to agree on an electoral roadmap in line with Article 5.

As the deadline approaches, all eyes are on Mogadishu to see what the winds of change bring.