Kenyan shilling to slip as African currencies diverge next week

African currencies are expected to show mixed performance against the US dollar in the coming week, with Kenya's shilling forecast to weaken, while Uganda's shilling and Zambia's kwacha are likely to strengthen.

Nigeria's naira and Ghana's cedi are projected to remain relatively stable, even as they face demand pressures.

Kenya's shilling is expected to ease slightly due to an increased demand for dollars from the manufacturing sector.

The shilling traded at 129.60/90 per dollar, compared with last Thursday's close of 129.55/95.

Nigeria

Nigeria's naira is expected to hold steady next week despite a slight dip seen following a central bank decision to keep its main rate unchanged.

The naira was quoted at 1,447 per dollar on the official market on Thursday, compared with 1,450 a week earlier.

On the parallel market, the unit traded at around 1,475 per dollar.

"We expect the naira to be stable, though this week's rate decision could trigger brief capital outflows and mild pressure on the currency as yields adjust lower. Overall, we see the unit holding firm in the near term," one trader said.

Ghana

Ghana's cedi is forecast to remain range-bound, supported by ongoing central bank activity and balanced flows, barring any emergence of fresh demand pressures. London Stock Exchange Group data showed the cedi trading at 11.20 to the dollar on Thursday.

A trader said the cedi could lose grounds against the dollar in the week ahead on persistent demand.

"Central bank auctions and mining sector inflows are expected to meet only a portion of the backlog of demand from portfolio investors and the real sectors," the trader added.

Uganda

The Ugandan shilling is seen firming, buoyed by remittance flows from diaspora workers and end-month inflows from charities and commodity exporters.

At 0945 GMT, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,620/3,630, compared to last Thursday's close of 3,635/3,645.

A Kampala-based independent foreign exchange trader said the market was receiving healthy seasonal inflows from Ugandan workers abroad sending cash for relatives for December festivities and additional flows from charities and exporters of commodities like coffee.

"The local unit will get support from these flows," said the trader, who expects the unit to strengthen further to around 3,600 per dollar in the near term.

Zambia

Zambia's kwacha is likely to maintain its strength next week, supported by rising copper prices, the country's primary source of foreign earnings.

On Thursday, commercial banks quoted the currency of Africa's second-largest copper producer at 23.12 per dollar from 23.14 a week ago.

"Multiple supportive factors are converging to lift copper prices, providing crucial tailwind for Zambia's currency given copper's dominance in the nation's export earnings," Access Bank said in a note.