How has Uganda's Museveni stayed at the helm for 40 years?
President Yoweri Museveni has sought to frame his long tenure as necessitated by circumstances and not personal ambition although experts point to his strategic positioning.
For most Ugandans, Yoweri Museveni remains the only president they have known in office after he secured a seventh term in the just-concluded election.
He won 71.65 percent of the vote, the Electoral Commission said, and his ruling party, the National Resistance Movement is expected to further cement its majority in parliament. The opposition dismissed the results as “fake”.
The 81-year-old president — who seized power in 1986 after leading a guerilla rebellion – is among the world's oldest sitting heads of state and the third longest-ruling leader in Africa.
His supporters consider his 40-year reign as a period of internal stability as neighbours descended into crisis. Uganda was gripped by coups since independence from Britain in 1962 - with nine leaders removed from office over a period of 22 years - until Museveni rose to power.
Securing gains
For his seventh term bid, the veteran leader campaigned on a platform of securing the gains of his tenure and promised a leap to middle-income status. The country is on the verge of an oil boom with French oil giant TotalEnergies and China's state-owned oil firm China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) scheduled to start production in October.
Analysts argue that Museveni’s longevity at the helm stems from a strategic positioning on the international stage and a firm presence of state machinery over activities in his country.
He has contributed troops to regional peacekeeping missions and won praise for hosting one of the world's largest refugee settlements.
“He has the buy-in of the West because he takes care of their interest in the region,” Ugandan human rights campaigner Kiiza Eron told TRT Afrika.
“And even if there is stability, it is a stability that hinges on an individual.”
Concerns are also rife on the independence of state institutions and the prominent role that members of the president's family play in government. Museveni's wife was the minister of education in the recent cabinet, his eldest son General Muhoozi Kainerugaba is the head of the military, while his half-brother Salim Saleh is the president’s adviser on military matters.
The opposition has largely not been able to offer a counterweight to Museveni over the years, analysts said. They cited the government’s intolerance to dissent which has resulted in repeated crackdowns on rivals, although the authorities insist the measures were meant to restore order.
Similar concerns were raised by UN rights office in the run up to the election, which deplored "widespread arbitrary arrests, detentions and the use of unnecessary or disproportionate force against the opposition".
The president’s long-standing rival Kiiza Besigye has been in detention since November 2024 over a charge of treason, which carries the death sentence. He denies the accusation.
Museveni’s closest challenger in last week’s election Bobi Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, went into hiding after disputing the credibility of the results. The Electoral Commission of Uganda has not responded to the concern, but on Tuesday the president’s son issued online threats on Bobi Wine’s life in posts on X social media which have since been deleted.
Geopolitics vs ambition
Yet Museveni has sought to frame his long tenure as necessitated by circumstances in the country and geopolitics rather than personal ambition.
His campaign themes included pan-Africanist motivations to see Uganda and Africa nations occupy strong positions in the global order. He cited how recent US military action in Venezuela was a wake-up call for bold leadership in Africa that prioritises the continent’s strategic security on land, sea, air and space.
The 81-year-old leader presides over a country that is majorly young with over 73% of its 46 million people under the age of 30, according to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics. His addresses routinely refers to the youth as "my children and grandchildren".
Youth unemployment and their perceived political exclusion were among the main concerns in the election.
"I have been seeing him (as president) ever since I was born. He has stayed in power for that long because of his maneuvers," Sultan Ahmed Ikonge told TRT Afrika.
There has been a growing debate on the post-Museveni order. But experts suggest that a succession plan was already under way, with the growing influence of the president's 51-year-old son providing the clearest indication.
"He already has a succession plan. They have been working on it for long… So for all practical purposes and intents, the succession is halfway and they will continue working on it,” said Eron.