Iran ta fitar da wani faifan bidiyo a ranar 10 ga watan Nuwamba, wanda ya nuna wani katafaren sansanin soja na ƙarƙashin ƙasa, cike da makamai masu linzami masu cin dogon zango da kuma masu shawagi, motocin harba makamai masu linzami da kuma wuraren ajiyar makamai.

Faifan bidiyon ya nuna shugaban hafsoshin rundunar sojin Iran, Ali Abdollahi, da kwamandan rundunar sararin samaniya ta Rundunar Juyin Juya Halin Musulunci (IRGC), Majid Mousavi, suna zagaya wannan sansani na sirri a cikin wata mota kirar Jeep. Sun ratsawa ta gaban jerin makamai, ciki har da Fattah-1 da Kheibar Shekan, waɗanda dukkan su makamai ne masu linzami masu cin matsakaicin zango.

Tun daga shekarar 2015, Iran ta sha fitar da makamantan waɗannan bidiyoyi na abin da take kira “biranen makamai masu linzami”, ciki har da wani faifan bidiyo da ta fitar a watan Maris din 2025.

Sai dai a cewar Oral Toga, wani mai bincike a Cibiyar Nazarin Iran (IRAM) da ke Ankara, sabon faifan bidiyon ya bambanta da waɗanda aka fitar a baya ta hanyoyi uku na musamman.

Kwamandojin da suka bayyana a cikin bidiyon watan Maris, wato Mohammad Bagheri da Amir Ali Hajizadeh, an kashe su a watan Yunin 2025. Toga ya shaida wa TRT World cewa, nuna waɗanda suka gaje su a wuri guda da aka nuna a baya, saƙo ne da ke nuna cewa “kawar da manyan shugabannin rundunar bai tarwatsa tsarin ba”.

Abu na biyu, kakakin IRGC, Hossein Mohebbi, ya yi iƙirarin cewa rundunar sararin samaniyar IRGC ta mayar da aikin kera makamai masu linzami zuwa ƙarƙashin ƙasa a lokacin yaƙin, tare da gina abin da ya kira “biranen kera makamai masu linzami”.

A cewar Toga, idan wannan ikirari gaskiya ne, hakan na nufin an samu sauyi daga irin bidiyoyin da Iran ta fitar a baya, waɗanda suka fi mayar da hankali kan ajiyar makamai da harba su, ba wai kera su ba.

Abu na uku shi ne, an fitar da wannan faifan bidiyon ne bayan shafe watanni takwas ana ci gaba da kai hare-haren Amurka da Isra'ila, waɗanda suka fara a ranar 28 ga watan Fabrairu.

Toga ya ce: “Saboda haka, manufar bidiyon ita ce nuna cewa Iran na da ƙarfin jure hare-hare da kuma ci gaba da kasancewa da ƙarfinta.”

Sai dai Mustafa Caner, wani masani kan harkokin Iran kuma mataimakin farfesa a Cibiyar Nazarin Gabas ta Tsakiya ta Jami'ar Sakarya, ya ce ya kamata a yi taka-tsantsan wajen fassara ma'anar wannan faifan bidiyon.

Ya shaida wa TRT World cewa: “Wannan sabon faifan bidiyon ya tabbatar da cewa wuraren ajiyar makamai da na'urorin harba makamai masu linzami suna ƙarƙashin ƙasa, amma bai bayar da wata hujja da ke nuna cewa an mayar da aikin kera makaman zuwa ƙarƙashin ƙasa ba.”

Ya ce babban saƙon da wannan sabon faifan bidiyon ke isarwa shi ne ga Amurka da Isra'ila, na cewa har yanzu Iran na da ƙarfin yaƙi da kuma makaman kare kai masu linzami masu cin dogon zango.

Dukkan masana biyun sun amince cewa an shirya wannan faifan bidiyon ne cikin tsanaki, domin ya yi tasiri sosai ga waɗanda za su kalla.

Sai dai muhimman bayanai kamar wurin da sansanin yake, ranar da aka ɗauki bidiyon, yawan ramukan da ke cikinsa, da kuma adadin makamai masu linzami da ke shirye don amfani, duk ba a bayyana su ba.

Yawan makaman da ke ajiye a yaznu

Caner ya ce ba zai yiwu a iya tantance ainihin adadin makaman da Iran ke da su ba ta hanyar bayanan da ake samu a fili. Ya ce daya daga cikin dalilan wannan rashin tabbas shi ne, duk kiyasin da aka yi kafin fara yaƙin kan yawan makaman Iran sun zama ba daidai ba.

Toga ya bayyana cewa tun daga ƙarshen watan Fabrairu, Iran ta harba aƙalla makamai masu linzami masu cin dogon zango guda 2,200, baya ga jirage marasa matuƙa kirar Shahed sama da 4,900, waɗanda aka kera domin kai hari sau ɗaya tare da ɗauke da bama-bamai a jikinsu.

Da yake ambaton kiyasin da kamfanin dillancin labarai na Bloomberg ya wallafa, Toga ya ce rahotanni sun nuna cewa har yanzu Iran tana da aƙalla makamai masu linzami masu cin dogon zango guda 1,700 ko fiye, waɗanda za su iya kaiwa Isra'ila. Ya ƙara da cewa ana ci gaba da kera waɗannan makamai, kimanin guda 50 a kowane wata, wanda ya kai kusan rabin adadin da ake kerawa kafin yaƙin.

Ya ce yawan na'urorin harba makamai masu linzami ma wani muhimmin al'amari ne, domin kiyasin Isra'ila da Amurka ya nuna cewa an lalata sama da 200 daga cikin na'urori kusan 400 da Iran ke da su.

Sai dai Toga ya ƙara da cewa, bisa ga waɗannan kiyasin, Iran ta sake buɗe mashigar ramukan ƙarƙashin ƙasa, tare da mayar da na'urorin harba makamai da suka tsira daga hare-haren zuwa bakin aiki.

A ra'ayin Caner kuwa, muhimmin abin tambaya ba shi ne yawan makamai masu linzami da na'urorin harba su da Iran ke da su a halin yanzu ba.

Ya ce: “Abin da ya fi muhimmanci shi ne ko Iran za ta iya ci gaba da kera makamai a irin adadin da take kerawa kafin yaƙin.” Ya kuma yi nuni da sinadarin solid propellant, wani nau'in makamashin da ake amfani da shi wajen harba rokoki, a matsayin wani babban ƙalubale da ka iya kawo cikas ga wannan buri.

Ya ce Iran ba ta da isasshen wannan sinadari, kuma tana dogaro da masu samar mata da shi daga ƙasashen waje.

Ya bayyana cewa wannan ƙalubalen zai fi zama mai muhimmanci idan yaƙin ya tsananta kuma ya ɗauki tsawon lokaci.

Toga ya ce Iran ta rasa “babban kaso” na ƙarfin kera makaman da take da shi kafin yaƙin, amma har yanzu tana da damar sake gina wannan ƙarfin.

Ya kuma ce makamai sama da 6,000 da Iran ta harba sun janyo amfani da aƙalla makamai masu linzami masu tare hare-hare guda 1,000 da Amurka ta ƙera.

Toga ya ce: “A cikin wannan lissafi, ba yawan makamai ne ya fi muhimmanci ba, sai dai gogayyar da ke tsakanin ƙarfin Iran na ci gaba da kera makamai da kuma yawan makaman da abokan gabanta ke da su.

Nuna makaman bayan nazari a tsakanke??

Masana sun bayyana cewa ba a fitar da wannan faifan bidiyon a wannan lokaci bisa kuskure ba, domin an tsara lokacin fitar da shi ne da wata manufa ta musamman.

An fitar da bidiyon ne mako guda bayan rahotannin hare-hare a tsibirin Qeshm, a daidai lokacin da ake ta hasashen cewa Amurka za ta iya sake kai hare-hare bayan zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi a ƙasar.

A cikin faifan bidiyon, Abdollahi ya yi gargaɗin cewa duk wani sabon hari da aka kai wa Iran zai haifar da martani “da zai wuce iyakokin yankin”. Wannan ya yi daidai da umarnin da Jagoran Addinin Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ya bayar a ranar 31 ga watan Oktoba, na cewa dole ne martanin Iran ya kasance “ba tare da takaita shi ga wani yanki na musamman ba”, tare da faɗaɗa jerin wuraren da za ta kai wa hari.

Toga ya ce wannan faifan bidiyon yana da saƙonni ga ɓangarori uku.

Na farko, ga gwamnatin Washington, bidiyon yana nuna cewa Iran ba ta shiga tattaunawa daga matsayin ƙasa da ƙarfi ba.

Na biyu, ga mahalarta tattaunawar da ke gudana a birnin Doha, inda Tehran ke jiran martanin Amurka kan sharuɗɗa guda bakwai da ta gabatar mata.

Na uku, ga al'ummar Iran da ke cikin gida. Toga ya ce hotunan wuraren soji da suka tsira daga hare-hare da kuma sabbin kwamandoji da aka naɗa na taimakawa wajen ƙarfafa gwiwar al'umma, a daidai lokacin da ƙasar ke fuskantar matsin tattalin arziki mai tsanani.

A ra'ayin Caner kuwa, saƙon da Iran ke son isarwa ta hanyar wannan faifan bidiyon yana da manufofi guda biyu: Na farko, hana Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump tunanin sake kai wa Iran hari bayan zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adin shugabancin Amurka. Na biyu kuma, ƙarfafa matsayin Iran a tattaunawa idan har Washington ta zaɓi hanyar diflomasiyya maimakon amfani da ƙarfin soja.

Dangane da Isra'ila kuwa, Toga ya ce babban abin da ya fi damun ta shi ne ƙarfin Iran na harba makamai masu linzami da yawa a lokaci guda. Wannan na nufin adadin makamai masu linzami mafi yawa da ƙasa za ta iya harbawa lokaci guda ko kuma cikin wani hari guda da aka tsara shi cikin tsari.

Kiyasin da aka yi ya nuna cewa har yanzu Iran tana da makamai masu linzami kusan 1,700 da za su iya kaiwa Isra'ila. Toga ya ce: “Abin da ya fi muhimmanci ba shi ne jimillar yawan makaman ba, sai dai adadin waɗanda za a iya harbawa lokaci guda. Kuma ajiyar makamai a ƙarƙashin ƙasa na kare wannan damar ne kai tsaye.”

Ya ƙara da cewa, ga sojojin Amurka da ƙasashen yankin Gulf, babbar barazanar da suke fuskanta a kullum ita ce makaman linzami masu gajeren zango na Iran da kuma jirage marasa matuƙa masu ɗauke da bama-bamai. Waɗannan makamai na iya kaiwa dukkan sansanonin sojin Amurka da kuma manyan sassan muhimman ababen more rayuwa na samar da makamashi a yankin.

Wani bincike da kamfanin dillancin labarai na Reuters ya gudanar ya gano cewa tun bayan fara yaƙin Iran da ƙungiyoyin da ke ƙawance da ita sun kai aƙalla hare-hare 135 kan muhimman wuraren samar da ababen more rayuwa guda 84 a ƙasashen yankin Gulf.

A halin da ake ciki, Toga ya bayyana cewa gargaɗin da Abdollahi ya yi na cewa martanin Iran zai wuce iyakokin yankin, ya riga ya haifar da rahotannin cewa Amurka ta fara kwashe wasu jiragen yaƙinta daga sansanonin sojinta da ke Birtaniya.

Ya ce haɗuwar waɗannan abubuwa na ƙara tsadar duk wani ɗan gajeren hari mai tsanani da Amurka da Isra'ila za su kai wa Iran, musamman idan har ba za su iya kawar da ƙarfin sojin Iran da ya bazu cikin ramuka masu ƙarfi na ƙarƙashin ƙasa ba, yayin da ƙasar ke ci gaba da kera kusan makamai masu linzami 50 a kowane wata.

Toga ya ce matakin da Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump ya ɗauka a wannan makon na dakatar da shirin sake kai wa Iran hare-hare, bisa buƙatar ƙasashen yankin Gulf, da kuma kalaman Sakataren Harkokin Wajen Amurka, Marco Rubio, na cewa ba lallai ba ne a sake gudanar da manyan hare-haren soji, sun yi daidai da wannan tunani.

Ya ƙara da cewa, a lokaci guda, yadda Iran ke ci gaba da sake gina muhimman ababen more rayuwarta na rage lokacin da waɗanda ke goyon bayan ɗaukar matakin soji suke da shi kafin ƙarfin Iran ya ƙara bunƙasa.

Iranian commanders now speak of a pre-emptive option, and Israel says it is preparing for that scenario.

“An underground missile network makes a deliberate war costlier, but it does not make an accidental one less likely,” Toga says.

Caner is more restrained on the offensive threat. Iran has released similar footage before, and the record shows it has been the party attacked rather than the initiator, he notes.

However, a pre-emptive strike doctrine is being discussed in Iran more than ever, he says. Yet, the video itself is not evidence that Iran is about to go on the offensive, he tells TRT World.

“The real message is how costly Iran’s response would be if it were attacked, and that its defence and war-fighting capacity can keep it standing for a long time.”

Ya ce kwamandojin sojin Iran a yanzu sun fara magana kan yiwuwar kai hari kafin abokan gaba su kai hari, yayin da Isra'ila ta bayyana cewa tana shirin tunkarar irin wannan yanayi, ko da tare da Amurka ko kuma ita kaɗai.

Toga ya ce: “Samun hanyar sadarwar makamai masu linzami a ƙarƙashin ƙasa na ƙara yawan kudaden da ake kashewa a yaƙin da aka shirya da gangan, amma hakan ba ya rage yiwuwar barkewar yaƙi bisa kuskure.”

Caner kuwa ya nuna ƙarin taka-tsantsan wajen yin hasashe kan yiwuwar Iran ta fara kai hare-hare.

Ya ce Iran ta taɓa fitar da makamantan waɗannan bidiyoyi a baya, kuma bayanan tarihi sun nuna cewa ita ce aka fi kai wa hari, maimakon ita ce ta fara kai hari kan wasu ƙasashe.

Sai dai ya ce a yanzu ana tattauna batun koyarwar kai hari kafin abokan gaba su kai hari a Iran fiye da kowane lokaci.

Duk da haka, ya shaida wa TRT World cewa wannan faifan bidiyon shi kaɗai ba hujja ba ce da ke nuna cewa Iran na shirin fara kai hare-hare.

Ya ce: “Babban saƙon da ake son isarwa shi ne irin tsadar da martanin Iran zai haifar idan aka kai mata hari, da kuma yadda ƙarfin kariya da na yaƙinta zai ba ta damar ci gaba da tsayawa da ƙafafunta na tsawon lokaci.”