Kisan da aka yi wa Jagoran Addinin Iran Ali Khamenei a hare-haren da Amurka da Isra'ila suka kai a ranar Asabar ya kawo cikas ga wanzuwar Gabas ta Tsakiya, inda al'ummar Shi'a suka yi alƙawarin ɗaukar fansar mutuwar shugaban mai shekaru 87.
Baya ga Khamenei, waɗanda suka mutu a hare-haren da akai a tsakiyar Tehran akwai Ministan Tsaron Iran Aziz Nasirzadeh da Sakataren Majalisar Tsaro Ali Shamkhani, ban da 'yan uwan shugaban da su ma aka kashe.
Mohammed Pakpour, kwamandan Rundunar Juyin Juya Hali ta Iran (IRGC), da Laftanar Janar Abdolrahim Mousavi - wanda ya jagoranci sojojin ƙasar tun lokacin da aka kashe magajinsa a lokacin rikicin kwanaki 12 a watan Yuni - su ma suna cikin mambobin shugabannin sojojin Iran da aka kashe.
An kuma samu asarar rayuka a faɗin ƙasar yayin da hare-haren Isra'ila da Amurka suka nufi wurare da dama, ciki har da makarantar 'yan mata ta firamare a Munib, wanda ya yi sanadiyyar mutuwar ɗalibai sama da 100.
Duk da cewa Amurka da Isra'ila na ci gaba da kai wa Iran hare-haren, dubban mutane sun fito kan tituna a manyan biranen Tehran, Isfahan da Mashhad domin yin jimamin kashe babban shugabansu.
Idan babu shugaban ƙasa, ƙasar za ta kasance ƙarƙashin jagorancin majalisar jagoranci ta wucin gadi wadda ta ƙunshi shugaban ƙasar Iran, shugaban alkalai, da kuma ɗaya daga cikin malaman shari'a na Majalisar Tsaro, wata hukuma ta addini.
Mutuwar Khamenei, wanda ya jagoranci ƙasar tun 1989 kuma wanda maganarsa ta kasance ta ƙarshe a kan al'amuran addini, diflomasiyya da siyasa ta cikin gida, ta tilasta wa Iran shiga yankin da ba a shirya masa ba.
jama’a sun yi zanga-zanga da dama a Iran a cikin 'yan makonnin nan kan halin da tattalin arziki ke ciki, kuma shugabannin siyasa da addini suna fuskantar babban aiki na gudanar da gangami ga jama'a sama da miliyan 90.
Mayar da hankali nan take zai kasance kan sabon shugaban ƙasa mai cikakken iko, wanda ake sa ran za a zaɓa a cikin makonni masu zuwa.
Masu sharhi da masu sa ido kan Iran sun yi imanin cewa sabon shugaban zai iya zama ɗaya daga cikin mutanen da suka hada da Hassan Khomeini, Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, Alireza Arafi, Hassan Ameli ko Hassan Rouhani.
An naɗa Arafi a matsayin mamban shari'a na Majalisar Jagorancin Iran, wata majalisa da aka ɗora wa alhakin cika aikin jagoran addini na ƙasa har sai Majalisar Ƙwararru ta zaɓi sabon shugaba.
Khomeini jikan Ruhollah Khomeini ne, wanda ya kafa ƙasar Iran bayan juyin juya halin 1979 kuma shugabanta na farko, kuma Rouhani shi ne tsohon shugaban ƙasar. Mirbagheri da Ameli sanannun malaman Shi'a ne.
Shin kasar Iran ta bayan juyin juya halin 1979 za ta tsira?
Ɗaya daga cikin manyan tambayoyi bayan mutuwar Khamenei ta shafi halin da Iran ta shiga bayan juyin juya halin na 1979, wanda cibiyoyin ‘yan rabi dimokuradiyya rabi addini ke jagoranta tun daga lokacin.
Ga shugaban Amurka Donald Trump, "canjin shugabanci" ya kasance a sahun gaba a cikin manufofin hare-haren sojoji kan Iran.
Duk da haka, masu sharhi suna jin cewa duk da mummunan harin, gwamnatin Iran ba za ta iya faduwa ta mutu nan take ba.
"Gwamnatin ba za ta ruguje ba saboda waɗannan hare-haren ko mutuwar Khamenei," in ji Luciano Zaccara, wani mai sharhi kan siyasa a kan Iran da Gabar Gulf da ke Doha, wanda ya fuskanci aƙalla makamai masu linzami 12 daga Iran tun jiya..
"Zai iya faruwa daga baya, amma ba yau ba, ba wannan makon ba, ba a watan Maris ba, kuma... ba a 2026 ba," Zaccara ya shaida wa TRT World.
Yana jin kamar masu adawa da gwamnati ba su da ƙarfin da ake buƙata don ƙarfafa juyin juya hali.
"A yanzu IRGC ce garantin ci gaba da wanzuwar gwamnatin," in ji Zaccara, yana mai nuni da ƙarfin sojojin ƙasar masu ƙarfi da ƙwarewa.
"A zahiri suna kare Iran, don haka har yanzu ana girmama IRGC a matsayin wani ɓangare na wannan gwamnatin duk da tsananin murkushe masu zanga-zanga," Zaccara ya ƙara da cewa, yana mai nuni da tashin hankalin da jama'a suka yi na baya-bayan nan.
Duk da cewa al'ummar Iran sun daɗe suna fama da takunkumin ƙasashen yamma tun daga shekarun 1980, "har yanzu tushen zamantakewa na yanzu na da faɗi" yayin da IRGC ke ci gaba da sarrafa makamai da kuɗi, yana samar da miliyoyin ayyukan yi ga Iraniyawa a faɗin ƙasar, a cewar Zaccara.
Amma ya kuma nuna cewa Iran ba za ta iya ci gaba da harba makamai masu linzami na dogon lokaci akan sansanonin Amurka a duk faɗin yankin ba saboda ƙarancin makamanta.
Yana kuma jin cewa ƙasashen Gulf - daga Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa zuwa Bahrain, Saudiyya da Qatar - ba za su iya "ƙara tsawon kwanaki" a ƙarƙashin hare-haren makamai masu linzami na Iran ba, wanda hakan ka iya tilasta musu matsa lamba don cim ma matsaya ta lumana don kawo ƙarshen yaƙin.
Haka kuma, irin waɗannan hare-haren na iya zama na kuskure cikin sauƙi kuma su haifar da asarar rayukan fararen hula a yankin Gulf, wanda hakan ka iya haifar da ƙiyayya ga Iran.
Zaccara ya kuma yi imanin cewa duk da dagewar da Firaministan Isra'ila Benjamin Netanyahu ya yi na ci gaba da kai hare-hare kan kadarorin soja da na siyasa na Iran, Trump na iya gamsuwa da mutuwar Khamenei da kuma kawo ƙarshen rikicin.
Mene ne shirin Iran a fagen?
Ga Iran, babban ƙalubalen da ake fuskanta a yanzu shi ne fuskantar babbar rundunar soja mafi karfi a duniya, wadda ke aiki tare da sojojin Isra'ila.
Baya ga haka, Amurka da Isra'ila sun dogara sosai kan ingantattun na'urorin leƙen asiri don bin diddigin abokan gaba da kuma kai hari kan abokan gaba.
An kashe Khamenei lokacin da yake ganawa da manyan mukarrabansa, a bayyane yake a ofishinsa na gwamnati tare da 'yarsa, surukinsa da jikarsa, hakan na kawo tambayoyi kan dalilin da ya sa ba a mayar da shi wani wuri mai tsaro ba ko kuma wani yanki mai kariya, sai aka bar su a wajen da za a iya kai musu hari cikin sauki.
"Amurka tana da babbar na'urar leƙen asiri mai suna ISR: Leken Asiri, Sa ido da Bincike. Tana amfani da bayanai na ainihin lokaci ta hanyar tauraron dan adam da sauran tsarin leƙen asiri kamar jiragen sama na AWACS da jiragen sama marasa matuƙa kuma tana nazarin su cikin daƙiƙa kaɗan tare da Kirkirarriyar Basira," in ji Mohammed Eslami, ƙwararre a Iran.
Ya ce kusan ba zai yiwu a yi yaƙi da irin wannan abokin gaba ba, yana mai nuni da ƙarfin Amurka sabanin majiyoyin Iran, waɗanda ke bayan tsarin sojojin Amurka a fannin fasaha.
To menene shirin Iran na fuskantar hare-haren Amurka da Isra'ila?
Iran na "faɗa ba tare da wata manufa ta musamman ba, tana cinna wuta a ko'ina kuma tana yin wasan mahaukata," Eslami, masanin kimiyyar siyasa a Cibiyar Jami'ar European, ya shaida wa TRT World.
"Babu ma'anar nasara ga Iran. Su (shugabannin Iran) ba su bayyana ta ba," in ji farfesan, amma ya ƙara da cewa ba yana nufin Tehran ta ruɗe kan abin da za ta yi wajen kalubalantar harin Amurka da Isra'ila ba.
"Idan kuna shirin fara yaƙi, kuna fayyace manufa da ma'anar nasara! Ga ƙasar da aka mamaye, nasara ita ce kare ƙasa kuma kada a rasa ta, kuma kada a canza gwamnati," in ji shi, yana mai nuni ga salon tunanin Iran.
"Babban shirin Iran shi ne a ci gaba da riƙe dukkan yankin a ƙarƙashin tuta ɗaya. Don ci gaba da riƙe tsarin mulkin Jumhuriyar Musulunci da kuma yin barna ga maƙiya don kada su sake kai hari cikin watanni shida ko shekara guda."
Eslami ya kuma jawo hankali ga gaskiyar cewa tsarin Iran na yanzu yana "damuwa da mutuwar" Khamenei, wanda shi ma wani babban malamin addini ne na miliyoyin 'yan Shi'a da ke zaune a wasu ƙasashe - daga Bahrain zuwa Iraki, Pakistan da sauran ƙasashe.
A wannan gabar, idan masu zanga-zangar adawa da gwamnatin Iran suka fito kan tituna suna adawa da shugabannin yanzu, "gwamnatin za ta murkushe su ta hanyar da ba a taɓa gani ba," in ji shi.
Mako mai muhimmanci
Masana sun yarda cewa Iran, ƙasar da ta samu kwarin gwiwa daga tarihin Farisa da kuma akidar Shi'a, tana fuskantar ɗaya daga cikin mawuyacin halin da take ciki a cikin ƙarni da dama.
Eslami ya bayyana kwanaki bakwai masu zuwa, wanda kuma su ne za su tantance wanda zai zama shugaban ƙasar na gaba, a matsayin mai muhimmanci ga makomar Iran.
A mako mai zuwa ko makamancin haka, "idan Jumhuriyar Musulunci ta tsira, za su sanya matashi kuma shugaba mai buɗaɗɗen tunani don gyara tsarin zamantakewa, siyasa da tattalin arziki," in ji farfesan.
"Tsarin zai fara gyara kansa kafin mutane su canza shi."
Yayin da wasu ƙwararru ke hasashen cewa za a yi yaƙin basasa, Eslami ya yi imanin cewa babu wanda zai iya hasashen hakan kafin ƙarshen shiga tsakani na ƙasashen waje.
Iran, wadda wakilanta na Shi'a daga Hezbollah ta Lebanon zuwa Houthis na Yemen suka raunana a lokacin hare-haren Isra'ila tun bayan harin Hamas a ranar 7 ga Oktoba, yanzu tana fuskantar matsaloli da dama, tun daga karuwar adawa ta cikin gida zuwa yaki gaba da gaba da sojojin manyankasashen duniya.
"A gefe guda, akwai wani babban aikin siyasa wanda burinsa shi ne raunata dukkan bangarorin iko na Iran da kuma mayar da kasar zuwa wani yanki mai rauni, marar karfi, mai biyayya ga jagorancin Isra'ila da Amurka - tare da gwamnatin juyin mulki mai tsauri," in ji Fatemeh Karimkhan, wata 'yar jarida 'yar Iran da ke Tehran.
"A gefe guda kuma, wani babban yunkuri na kasa na tsaye kyam - duk da dukkkan matsalolin cikin gida - don nuna tirjiyar mika makomar kasar ga hannun kasashen waje, raunana tsarin, rushewar zuciyar kasar, da kuma kakaba jagorancin kasashen waje - domin kiyaye 'yancin kai da mutuncin kasa."
