Waiwaye kan 2025: Shekarar kisan ƙare dangi a Gaza da sauran yaƙe-yaƙe a duniya

Kalaman Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump na ikirarin cewa ya kawo “ƙarshen yaƙe-yaƙe guda takwas” a shekarar nan sun shahara sosai, inda kuma yake nanata cewa ya “ceci miliyoyin rayuka” a duk faɗin duniya.

Sai dai al’ummar duniya suna kokwanton wannan ikirari saboda a ganinsu akwai ƙarin gishiri a ciki.

A Gaza, Isra’ila na ci gaba da kashe Falasɗinawa ba tare da tausayi ba duk da cewa an wanzar da yarjejeniyar tsagaitawa a ranar 10 ga Oktoba.

Shi ma yaƙin a Ukraine — wanda Trump ya yi alkawarin zai kawo ƙarshensa cikin sa’o’i 24 daga lokacin da zai soma wa’adin mulki na biyu a watan Janairu — ana ci gaba da yin sa ba tare da raguwa ba.

Sake ɓarkewar rikicin tsakanin Thailand da Cambodia ya sake hura wutar rikicin da a baya ya lafa.

Sannan yaƙin basasa a Sudan ya haifar da mafi girman ƙaurar jama’a ta cikin gida a tarihin duniya, inda miliyoyin mutane suka tsinci kansu a tsakiyar rikici tsakanin sojojin ƙasa da na ‘yan-awaren Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Shekarar ta kuma ga ta’azzarar yaƙin basasa a Myanmar, yayin da rikicin ƙungiyoyin ‘yan daba da na masu ɗauke da makamakai a Haiti suka haifar da gudun hijirar har mutum har miliyan 1.4.

Ko da yake Isra’ila da Iran sun dakatar da kai wa juna farmaki, sannan an kawo ƙarshen tashin hankalin da ya faru tsakanin Indiya da Pakistan cikin kwana huɗu, har yanzu zaman lafiya a tsakaninsu yana da rauni.

Da yawa sun rasa rayukansu a cikin yaƙe-yaƙe da rikice-rikice a wannan shekara fiye da yadda aka saba, kuma marubuci mai binciken rikice-rikicen duniya Dan Steinbock ya ayyana shekarar 2025 a matsayin “mara kyau ƙwarai — dangane da munanan asarar rayuka da ta tattalin arziki” yana mai cewa asarar rayukan abu ne da “za a iya kauce wa ta hanyar kyakkyawar diflomasiyya ta ƙasa da ƙasa”.

“A baya, akwai tsammanin cewa ba za a sake samun rikicin kisan ƙre dangi ba. Gaskiyar cewa irin wannan mummunar azabtarwa ta iya faruwa a Gaza tsawon shekaru biyu, dare da rana… na iya zama alamar abin da zai iya zama mafi muni a nan gaba,” in ji Steinbock a TRT World.

Hasashen Steinbock na baƙin ciki na “yaduwar sababbin yaƙe-yaƙen kisan kare dangi” da kuma yiyuwar sabbin yaƙe-yaƙe abu ne mai nauyi a rai yayin da sabbin hanyoyin ɓarna ke bayyana a faɗin duniya kuma Trump, wanda ya kira kansa mai kawo zaman lafiya, ya tura jiragen yaki zuwa yankin Caribbean a cikin mafi tsananin ta’azzarar sa’insa tsakaninsa da Venezuela.

Yayin da 2025 ke ƙarewa, TRT World ta gabatar da bincike kan manyan rikice-rikicen da suka ɓata shekarar kuma, watakila, suka saita yanayin sabuwar shekara mai zuwa.

“Shekara mafi muni” ga Gaza

Bayyanar wani shirin zaman lafiya mai matakai 20, tare da aiwatar da tsagaita wuta a ranar 10 ga Oktoba — wanda Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya da manyan ƙasashen yankin kamar Turkiyya suka goya bayan samar da ita — ya sa fatan kawo ƙarshen yaƙin kisan kare dangi na Isra’ila a Gaza da sauran yankunan Falasɗinu.

Amma gwamnatin masu tsaurin kishin kafa ƙasar Isra’ila ta Zionist ta sauya dokokin matakan, inda ta ci gaba da kai hare-hare kan fararen-hula a cikin wannan yanki da ake rusa shi kuma ta kashe kusan mutane 400 tun bayan fara tsagaita wutar.

Mace-macen da aka samu kwanan nan sun sa jimillar mutanen da suka mutu a Gaza ya kai 70,000 tun farkon yaƙin Isra’ila a watan Oktoban 2023.

Fiye da mutum 30,000 daga mace-macen sun faru ne a shekarar 2025, a cewar kungiyoyin kare haƙƙin bil’adama na Isra’ila.

“A 2023 da 2024 an rubuta manyan haƙƙoƙin da aka takae a Gaza, amma sakamakon a 2025 yana nuna muni mai tsanani, inda adadin waɗanda suka mutu ya nunka sau biyu, sannan mutane suka dinga ƙaura a baki ɗayan yankin, kuma yunwa ta zama sanadin mutuwar jama’a da yawa,” in ji rahoto na kungiyoyi 12 na kare haƙƙin ɗan’adam.

Rahoton ya bayyana 2025 a matsayin “shekarar da ta fi kowacce kashe kisa da ɓarnar da Falasɗinu suka sha tun 1967”, shekarar Yaƙin Kwanaki Shida, wanda ya kai mamayar Isra’ila a Gaza da Yammacin Kogin Jordan.

Yayin da ake dasa babbar ayar tambaya a kan batun tsagaita wuta, akwai alamun cewa adadin yawan waɗanda suka mutu a yankin zai iya kai wa har 100,000 — abin da ke nuna gagarumin asarar rayuka sanadin kisan ƙare dangi na Isra’ila.

Kwararru da masana, duk da haka, suna jaddada ƙarfin juriya na al’ummar Falasɗinu, wanda a fili ya taka rawa wajen tursasa gwamnatin Netanyahu ta amince da tsagaita wutar.

Tsagaitawar Gaza ita ce muhimmin lamari na wannan shekara, in ji Fatemeh Karimkhan, wata ‘yar jarida daga Tehran.

Duk da duk ƙoƙarin Isra’ila da goyon bayan Amurka, Tel Aviv ba ta “yi nasara wajen rusa Gaza gaba ɗaya ba” kuma an tilasta mata amincewa da tsagaitawar wuta, lamarin da ke nuna cewa ba Isra’ila ce kawai ke da hannu a filin dagar ba, Karimkhan ta faɗa wa TRT World.

Ramzy Baroud, marubuci kuma mai sharhi daga Falasɗinu, ya ga “canji mai muhimmanci a tsarin tunani”, inda ƙasashe da dama suka nesanta kansu daga gwamnatin Netanyahu saboda yadda ta gudanar da al’amura.

“Ƙarfin Falasɗinu da ƙaunar haɗin kai da suka haifar a duniya sun fi dukkan tashin hankali da jarabawar yaɗa ƙaryar goyon bayan Isra’ila a Ƙasashen Yamma,” in ji Baroud a TRT World.

“A Gaza, Isra’ila ta koya darasi mai mahimmanci: ƙarfin sojinta ko da tare da cikakken goyon bayan Ƙasashen Yamma, ba zai iya tabbatar da sakamakon siyasa ba.”

Rikicin Ukraine da Rasha

Abin da ya fara a matsayin “aikin soji na musamman” a watan Fabrairun 2022 yanzu yana kusantar shekara ta huɗu, wanda babu alamar kawo ƙarshensa, kuma ya sauya zuwa yaƙi mai jan lokaci — mafi girma cikin rikicin soja a Turai tun Yaƙin Duniya na II.

Kuma duk da yadda Trump ya so yin gaggawar kawo ƙarshen yaƙin — wanda ya haɗa da suka a bainar jama’a ga shugaban Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy a Fadar White House — 2025 ta ƙare ta bar Moscow da Kiev da raunukan a fagen fama.

A cewar ƙididdigar wata ƙungiya mai zaman kanta ta sa ido kan rikice-rikice, kimanin mutum 78,000 ne suka mutu a bangarorin biyu, ciki har da sojoji da fararen hula, a wannan shekara — mafi girman asarar rai tsakanin duk rikice-rikicen duniya.

Linas Kojala, Shugaba na Cibiyar Nazarin Siyasar Duniya da Tsaro a Vilnius, ya kalli ganawar Zelenskyy-Trump ta Fabrairu a matsayin “lokaci mai mahimmanci na kawo rashin zaman lafiya” daganin ƙarshen yaƙin, tare da mummunan tasiri ga NATO.

“Wannan lamari ya taso da damuwa game da hadin kai na Yamma da kuma sadaukarwar Amurka” ga Ukraine, Kojala ya faɗa wa TRT World.

Bayan gwamnatin Trump ta dakatar da tallafin kuɗi ga Ukraine, haɗin gwiwar agaji daga abokan hulɗa ya ragu zuwa kusan yuro biliyan 32.5 a 2025.

A cikin 2022–2024, tallafin shekara-shekara na shugabancin Amurka da ƙasashen Yamma zuwa Ukraine ya kai kimanin yuro biliyan 41.6.

Ga Ukraine da Turai ma, ikirarin Trump cewa Kiev ta miƙa yankuna ga Moscow don kawo ƙarshen yaƙin na iya kafa wani mummunan misali, ba wai ga nahiyar kawai ba har ma da duniya baki ɗaya.

A watan Agusta, shugabannin Turai da dama sun kasance cikin mamaki da maraba ta alfahari da Trump ga shugaban Rasha don ganawa a Alaska.

A mafi yawan shekarar, ‘zaman lafiya’ ya zaman kamar wani ƙwallo da ake gara shi tsakanin Amurka, Rasha, Ukraine da ƙasashen Turai da ke ƙoƙarin matsar ƙure haƙurin Putin — yayin da Washington ke ta yaɗa shawarwarin zaman lafiya tsakanin biranen Kiev, Moscow da Turai.

Trump ya gasa wa Putin da Zelenskyy aya a hannu kamar kuma yadda ya yi musu mutunci a wasu lokutan.

A kwanan nan ya fito da wani shirin zaman lafiya mai mataki 28, wanda Turai ta mayar da martani da wata maƙasudiyar mafita, wadda take ganin za ta ba da wasu nau’in garanti na tsaro ga Ukraine.

Cikin matsin lamba daga Amurka, Zelenskyy ya nuna ƙarin shirin neman ka’idojin wata yiwuwar sulhu da Rasha.

Kojala, duk da haka, yana jin cewa “Ukraine ba za ta miƙa wuya ba, saboda bukatun Rasha suna da tsanani kuma a asali ba su dace ba.”

Amma duk da tsawon lokacin da yaƙin zai ɗauka, hakan zai ƙara gwada dangantakar Amurka da Turai, a cewar ƙwararren.

“Babbar tambayar ita ce ko Amurka za ta dinga kallon Turai a matsayin nahiyar abokan hulɗa ko a matsayin tarin masu fafatawa ko ma abokan gaba.”

“Wannan bambanci yana da matuƙar muhimmanci, saboda zai sauya asalin dangantakar transatlantic da ta wanzu tun ƙarshen Yaƙin Duniya na II.”

Yaƙin kwanaki 12

Isra’ila ta tsokani ɗaya daga cikin manyan rikici da aka gani a 2025, inda ta kai hare-hare wasu cibiyoyin nukiliya a biranen Iran, har ma ta ja Amurka kai-tsaye cikin rikicin wanda ya jawo Tehran ta kai hare-haren ramuwar gayya kan Isra’ila.

Yaƙin na kwana 12 ya kawo ƙarshen “shekarun da aka shafe ana yaƙin sunƙuru tsakanin Tehran da Tel Aviv”, inda ya zama “lamari mafi jan hankali a duniya 2025,” in ji Aimen Jamil, ƙwararre kan harkokin Iran da ke zaune a Islamabad.

A cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata, duk da cewa yaƙin kisan kare dangi na Gaza ke ƙaruwa, Isra’ila ta yi yunƙurin raunana ƙarfin Iran — tun daga kan Hezbollah ta Lebanon zuwa Houthis ta Yemen.

Yayin da Isra’ila ke kai hari a wurare daban-daban a Iran, Amurka ta shiga yaƙin ta hanyar wani aiki mai suna ‘Midnight Hammer’, inda ta jefa bama-baman ‘bunker buster’ da harbin makaman Tomahawk a wuraren nukiliyar Iran, wanda Tel Aviv ke ikirarin ana amfani da su wajen haifar da uranium don gina bama-baman nukiliya.

Ko da ba a iya tabbatar da irin barnar da harin Isra’ila da na Amurka suka yi wa wuraren nukiliyar Iran ba, yaƙin kwanaki 12 ya sa yankin mai saurin rikicewa ya kasance a kan gaɓar faɗawa yaƙi.

Amma yaƙin ya nuna raunin tsarin kariyar makaman Isra’ila da ake yawan koɗawa, wato Iron Dome, a cewar Mohammed Eslami, masanin siyasa a Jami’ar Turai (European University Institute).

“Hari-harin Amurka a wasu wuraren Iran, da rawar Washington a cikin rage tashin hankali sun gaskata nauyin dabarun yaƙin,” ya ƙara da cewa.

Takaddamar Iran–Isra’ila, wadda masana ke gargaɗi za ta iya kai ga ƙarin rikice-rikice nan gaba, na iya sake daidaita haɗin kai na siyasar yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya tare da yiwuwar tasirinsa ga kasuwar makamashi mai arziki a yankin.

Bala’in Sudan

A watan Oktoba na wannan shekara, Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya ta bayyana yaƙin basasa a Sudan a matsayin “mummunar rikicin jinƙai mafi girma a duniya” — rikici mai muni wanda ya kashe fiye da 150,000 mutane, ya raunana da laƙume rayuka fiye da ninki biyu daga wannan adadi kuma ya sanya kimanin mutane miliyan 12 yin ƙaura a ƙasar ta arewacin Afirka.

Shekarar 2025 ba shakka ita ce mafi zubar da jini tun barkewar takaddama kan iko a watan Afrilun 2023 tsakanin rundunar sojin Sudan karkashin Janar Abdel Fattah al Burhan da rundunar ɗinbin ƙarfi ta RSF karkashin Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, wadda cikin gaggawa ta koma cikakken rikici.

Ana zargin RSF da aikata manyan take haƙƙin ɗan’adam, musamman a cikin zagayen watanni 18 na kulle Al Fasher, babban birnin jihar North Darfur, har zuwa kama birnin.

Jihad Masmahoun, mai nazarin al’amuran Sudan da Harshen Afirka ta Gabas, ya ce al’ummar duniya tana bukatar ta ɗauki mataki ta hanyar kiran ba wai RSF kadai ba har da sauran ƙungiyoyin Sudan da ke haɗa hannu wajen amfani da ƙarfin tuwo a kan fararen hula a matsayin ƙungiyoyin ta’addanci.

“Akwai buƙatar masu ba da gudummawa wajen rura wutar rikicin su daina hakan,” ya faɗa wa TRT World.

A yayin da miliyoyin mutane ke bukatar taimakon gaggawa na jinkai kuma babu alamar ƙarshen rikicin, akwai tsoro cewa rikicin zai ƙara tsananta a shekara mai zuwa kuma zai ƙara sanya mutane a cikin haɗari.

Lokacin da makwabta masu makaman nukiliya suka yi fada

Shekarar 2025 ta kasance shekarar tashin hankali a duk Kudancin Asiya — daga rikicin kan iyaka tsakanin Thailand da Cambodia zuwa yaƙin basasa a Myanmar da tashi-tashin kwanaki huɗu tsakanin Pakistan da Indiya, wanda ya kasance “mafi tsanani rikicin soja a cikin shekaru” tsakanin makwabtan da suke da makaman nukiliya.

Sophal Ear, mataimakiyar farfesa a Thunderbird School of Global Management a Jami’ar Arizona State, ta ga a cikin duk waɗannan rikice-rikicen a matsayin wani abu na sake dawo da matsalolin da a baya aka yi tunanin an kawar da su.

“Tsoffin takaddama suna ƙara taɓarɓarewa saboda siyasar cikin gida, da raunin hanyoyin magance rikice-rikicen yanki, wadanda ke rura tashin hankali,” Ear ya faɗa wa TRT World, yana nuna cewa yankin gaba ɗaya bai keɓantu daga yanayin rarrabuwar hankali na duniya da fafatawar manyan ƙasashe ba.

Daga cikin dukkan rikice-rikicen uku, Ear ya ga ƙara tsanantar rikicin kan iyakar Thailand–Cambodia a matsayin mafi mahimmanci a 2025, wanda ke nuna hadarin yadda saurin rikici da ake zaton ana daƙile shi zai iya ƙara tsananta.