Yadda yaƙin Iran zai iya rikita kasuwancin duniya ta Mashigar Teku ta Bab al Mandeb

Yayin da yaƙin Amurka da Isra'ila ke ƙara ƙamari a kan Iran inda ake ci gaba ta kai hare-hare da na hare-haren ramuwar gayya, tasirinsa yana yaɗuwa fiye da a fagen daga, yana girgiza hanyoyin jigilar kaya na duniya da kasuwannin makamashi.

Tehran ta riga ta matsa lamba don takaita zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa Mashigar teku ta Hormuz, wata muhimmiyar hanyar ruwa ga kao komon mai a duniya, tana aika numfashi ga kasuwannin makamashi na duniya.

Yanzu hankali ya koma yamma zuwa ga Mashigar Teku ta Bab al Mandeb, wata karamar hanya amma wadda dole ana bukatar ta wadda ke a ƙarshen kudu na Mashigar tekun Bahar Maliya, inda ko da ƙaramin rashin kwanciyar hankali na iya haifar da ƙara ta'azzara rikice-rikicen da ake da su.

A ranar Asabar, mayakan Houthi ta Yemen su nuna cewa za a iya jawo Tekun Bahar Maliya da Bab al Mandeb cikin rikicin, kungiyar na mai jaddada hatsarin da ke fuskantar ɗaya daga cikin hanyoyin jiragen ruwa mafi cunkoso a duniya.

Ga dalilin da ya sa Mashigar Bab al Mandeb ke da muhimmanci, da kuma abin da ke cikin hatsari yayin da tashin hankali ke ƙaruwa:

Ina ‘Kofar Hawaye’ ta duniya?’

Mashigar Bab al Mandeb tana kan wata muhimmiyar mahadar da ke tsakanin nahiyoyi, inda ta raba Yemen a yankin Larabawa daga Djibouti da Eritrea a yankin kusurwar Afirka.

Ta samar da wata karamar hanyar sadarwa ta teku tsakanin mashigar Suez da ke arewa da Tekun Aden da Tekun India a kudu, wata hanya da ke karfafa ciniki tsakanin Turai da Asia.

Tana da tsawon kilomita 100 (mil 62) kuma ta takaita zuwa kusan kilomita 30 (mil 19) a mafi matsewarta, mashigar tana tafiyar da dimbin kasuwanci na duniya.

Miliyoyin ganga na mai, iskar gas mai tsafta (LNG), da kayan kwantena suna ratsa mashigar kowace rana, wanda hakan ya sanya ta zama daya daga cikin wuraren da suka fi daukar hankali a duniya wajen harkokin sufurin teku.

Sunan Larabci, "Ƙofar Hawaye," yana nuna hatsarin jiragen ruwa da aka rasa rayuka da kuma labarin girgizar kasa mummuna da ta raba Asia da Afirka.

Duk da cewa mashigar ruwan ta daɗe tana haɗa Gabashin Afirka, Larabawa, da Kudancin Asia, muhimmancinta a duniya ya ƙaru bayan buɗe mashigar ruwan Suez a shekarar 1869, wadda ta samar da hanyar shiga teku kai tsaye zuwa Turai ta cikin Bahar Rum, wanda hakan ya hana buƙatar yin zagaye a Afirka.

Wanne muhimmanci Bab al Mandeb ke da shi ga makamashi a duniya?

Bab al Mandeb na ɗaya daga cikin muhimman wuraren da ake jigilar iskar gas a duniya.

A shekarar 2023, ganga miliyan 9.3 na danyen mai da man fetur ne suka ratsa ta mashigar a kowace rana - kusan kashi 12% na man da ake sayarwa a teku a duk duniya, a cewar Hukumar Kula da Bayanai ta Makamashi ta Amurka.

Mashigar teku ta Malacca ce kawai, mai jigilar ganga miliyan 24 a kowace rana, da kuma Mashigar Hormuz, mai jigilar ganga miliyan 21.8 ne suka fi fitar da ɗanyen mai a wannan shekarar.

Wannan kai komo ya ragu sosai a shekarar 2024 zuwa ganga miliyan 4.1 a kowace rana bayan hare-haren da 'yan Houthi suka kai wa jiragen ruwa wanda suka kawo cikas ga zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwan.

Tasirin ya wuce a kan mashigar kawai. Kai komo da jigilar mai ta mashigar Suez da bututun Suea zuwa Bahar Maliya ya ragu daga ganga miliyan 8.8 zuwa miliyan 4.8 a kowace rana.

Hare-haren da aka kai wa jiragen ruwa na kasuwanci, da kuma jiragen ruwa da ke da alaƙa da Amurka da Birtaniya, sun tilasta sake yin tafiya a kusa da ‘Cape of Good Hope’ da ke gefen kudancin Afirka kuma ya haifar da ayyukan kariya na jiragen ruwa na ƙasashen duniya da kuma hare-haren sama a Yemen.

Duk da cewa gangamin ya ragu bayan cigaban tsagaita wuta da aka samu a shekarar 2025, hakan ya nuna ikon ƙungiyar Houthi na wargaza ɗaya daga cikin muhimman hanyoyin ruwa na duniya da kuma makwararar makamashi a duniya.

Amma a karshen wannan makon kungiyar ta fara kai hare-haren makamai masu linzami zuwa Isra'ila, wanda hakan ya zama farkon shigar ta kai tsaye cikin rikicin Iran.

Mohammed Mansour, mataimakin ministan watsa labarai a gwamnatin da Houthi ke jagoranta, ya shaida wa gidan talabijin na Al-Araby cewa matakan kungiyar "an yi su ne daidai domin su yi tasiri da kuma kara matsin lamba ga Isra'ila da Amurka."

Ya ce Tekun Bahar Maliya, Tekun Aden, da Bab al Mandeb "za su kasance daga cikin zabin" da za a yi amfani da su a matsayin wani abin da zai taimaka a yakin da ake ci gaba da yi.

Gaɓar tekun Maliya mai ƙarfi ta Yemen tana ba wa 'yan Houthi kariya ta asali saboda makamansu. Duk da hare-haren sama na Amurka da Isra'ila da suka kashe manyan shugabanni da kuma lalata manyan sassan makamansu a bara, kungiyar ta sake tasowa da sake karfi.

Kusancin mashigar ruwan da Yemen kuma yana nufin wurare masu mahimmanci kamar sansanin Amurka na Lemonnier a Djibouti na cikin yankin da kungiyar ke kai hare-hare.

Meye mataki na gaba ga fagen makamashin duniya?

Masu sharhi sun yi gargadin cewa ci gaba da tashin hankali a kusa da mashigar Bab al-Mandeb na iya haifar da sakamako mai yawa.

Farea Al-Muslimi, wata mai bincike a Chatham House, ta yi gargadin a cikin wani bincike da ta yi a ranar 28 ga Maris cewa "duk wani cikas da zai ci gaba zai haifar da hauhawar farashin jigilar kaya, ya kara farashin mai da kuma kara matsin lamba ga tattalin arzikin duniya mai rauni wanda ya riga ya fara fuskantar koma baya daga yanayin da ake ciki a mashigar Hormuz," yayin da kuma ta bankado muhimman kayayyakin more rayuwa na yankin Gulf.

Farashin mai ya riga ya karu da sama da kashi 50% tun lokacin da aka fara yakin Iran, inda man fetur samfurin Brent ya haura dala $116 kowace ganga, wanda hakan ya sa ya zama kan tashi mafi yawa ta wata-wata da aka taba shaidawa.

Allison Minor ta Majalisar Atlantic ta lura cewa tare da rufe mashigar Hormuz, Saudiyya ta kara dogaro da hanyoyin Tekun Maliya don ci gaba da fitar da mai zuwa Asia.

"Ba tare da hanyar Tekun Maliya ba, jigilar mai ta yankin Gulf na iya tsayawa bayan wasu makonni na yaki," ta rubuta a tsakiyar watan Maris.

Ta ba da shawarar yiwuwar fuskantar yanayi da dama.

"'Yan Houthi suna da halin kalubalantar wasu a fage mai muhimmanci, don haka za su iya kai ƙananan hare-hare a Tekun Maliya sannan su ja da baya idan suka yanke shawarar yin hakan zai karya yarjejeniyar da suka kulla da Saudiyya," in ji ta. "A madadin haka, 'yan Houthi za su iya neman amfani da fargabar da Saudiyya ke yi game da katsewar da ke faruwa a Tekun Maliya don samo sabbin yarjejeniyoyi daga Riyadh."