Ta yaya barazanar Trump ga Nijeriya za ta yi tasiri kan siyasar Yammacin Afirka mai rauni?

Shugaban Kasar Amurka Donald Trump ya yi barazanar tsoma hannun Amurka a Nijeriya don kare Kiristocin kasar daga hare-haren da ke da alaƙa da ƙungiyoyin ta'addanci kamar Boko Haram, ISWAP, da ƙungiyoyin da ke da alaƙa da Al Qaeda.

Ba Nijeriya ba ce kadai ta damu da barazanar ta Trump ba, har ma da sauran ƙasashe a yankin da ke fama da rikici wanda ya fuskanci tsoma bakin ƙasashen waje da rashin zaman lafiya na siyasa tsawon shekaru da dama.

"Idan muka kai hari, zai yi sauri, cikin muni, da daɗi, kamar yadda 'yan ta'adda ke kai hari ga Kiristocinmu da muke kauna," in ji Trump a shafinsa na Truth Social, yana amfani da kalamai na gargaɗi da barazana karara.

Dangane da iƙirarinsa, cikin gaggawa Trump ya sanya Nijeriya a matsayin 'Ƙasar da ke da Damuwa ta Musamman', wanda zai iya haifar da sanya takunkumi ga ƙasar.

Shugabannin Nijeriya sun musanta cewa Kiristoci suna fuskantar hare-hare, kuma masu sharhi sun ce Boko Haram da ISWAP sun fi kai hari ga Musulmai a ƙasar fiye da waɗanda ba Musulmi ba.

Siffanta Najeriya a matsayin kasar da ba ta da ‘yancin yin addini ba ya bayyana gaskiya game da kasarmu, kuma hakan bai yi la'akari da kokarin da gwamnati ke yi na kare 'yancin addini ga dukkan 'yan Nijeriya ba," in ji shugaban Nijeriya Bola Tinubu, a shafinsa na X, yayin da yake mayar da martani ga zargin da Trump ya yi wa kasar.

Yayin da gwamnatin Nijeriya ta yi maraba da taimakon Amurka kan kungiyoyi masu tayar da kayar baya, ta kuma bukaci gwamnatin Trump ta mutunta ikon mulkin kasar da kuma ‘yancin iyakokinta.

Barazana ga abokiyar aiki

Masana sun yi gargadin cewa tsoma bakin Amurka a Yammacin Afirka na iya kawo hargitso a yankin da dama yana cikin mawuyacin hali, inda juyin mulkin soja na baya-bayan nan tare da manufofin adawa da mulkin mallaka daga Guinea zuwa Burkina Faso, Mali, da kuma kwanan nan Nijar, suka kafa sabuwar siyasar kalubalantar ECOWAS (Ƙungiyar Tattalin Arziki ta Kasashen Yammacin Afirka).

ECOWAS ƙungiya ce ta ƙasashen da ke goyon bayan kasashen Yamma, inda Najeriya ta taka muhimmiyar rawa tun lokacin da aka kafa ƙungiyar Yammacin Afirka a 1975 zuwa yanzu, kuma tana dauke da hedikwatarta a babban birnin Abuja.

"Kai hari Najeriya zai yi mummunan tasiri ga shirin Amurka a Yammacin Afirka," in ji Abdi Samatar, farfesa a fannin ilimin yanayin ƙasa a Jami'ar Minnesota, yayin tattaunawa da TRT World.

"Babu wani takamaiman yanki inda ake samun 'yan ta'adda masu adawa da Kirista. Ƙungiyoyin 'yan ‘ta’adda na Najeriya 'yan ta’adda ne da ke kai hari kan Musulmi da Kirista," in ji shi.

Sama da rabin al'ummar Nijeriya Musulmai ne, yayin da kusan kashi 45 cikin ɗari Kiristoci ne, tare da aƙalla ƙabilu 300 daban-daban da ke zaune a yankuna daban-daban na ƙasar.

Waɗannan ƙabilu ba lallai ba ne su kasance suna da addini ɗaya; misali, al'ummar Yarbawa sun rabu kusan daidai wa daida tsakanin Musulunci da Kiristanci, haka kuma mabiya addinan biyu suna zaune tare a arewacin kasar.

Yunus Turhan, kwararre kan harkokin siyasar yankin kudu da hamadar Sahara, ya ce matakin soja na Amurka kai tsaye a Najeriya ba abu ne mai yiwuwa ba.

Duk da haka, ya yi gargadin cewa idan irin wannan matakin ya faru, zai iya kawo cikas ga dukkan yankin Yammacin Afirka, wanda ke hade da yankin Sahel, wani yanki mai fadi daga Eritrea zuwa Senegal kuma tuni yake fuskantar rikice-rikicen kungiyoyi masu dauke da makamai da kuma rikice-rikicen kabilanci.

"Yana da mahimmanci a tuna cewa Najeriya babbar abokiyar hulda ce a cikin shirye-shiryen tsaron yanki na Amurka.

“Duk wani mataki da ya kawo cikas ga musayar bayanan sirri da hadin gwiwar aiki zai takaita karfin sojojin gwamnatin Nijeriya a kan kungiyoyi masu dauke da makamai," in ji Turhan a tattaunawar sa da TRT World.

Najeriya, daya daga cikin manyan kasashe masu karfin tattalin arziki a Afirka, tare da tashar jiragen ruwa ta Legas da ke aiki a matsayin babbar cibiyar kayayyaki a yankin, tana da alaka ta kud da kud ba da kasashen Yamma kawai ba, har ma da China, Rasha, da India.

Wannan yana nufin duk wani matakin Amurka zai iya jawo hankalin sauran kasashen da ba na Yamma ba, wanda hakan zai iya kawo cikas ga daidaito a yankin.

"Tare da yawan jama'a sama da miliyan 220, duk wani tsoma bakin soja a Najeriya zai iya haifar da babban gudun hijira, wanda ba wai kawai zai haifar da sakamako na soja ba har ma da sakamakon tattalin arziki da zamantakewa," in ji Gokhan Kavak, ƙwararre kan yankin Yammacin Afirka, yayin tattaunawa da TRT World.

‘Gibin mulki’

A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, karfin ikon Najeriya a yankin ya fuskanci ƙalubale daga ƙungiyar ƙasashen Sahel (AES), wacce Mali, Nijar, da Burkina Faso suka kafa a 2023 - ƙasashe uku na Yammacin Afirka tare da gwamnatocin da ba sa goyon bayan Yammacin duniya.

A cewar Turhan, yayin da AES ta riga ta canza daidaiton yanayin yankin, duk wani mataki na Amurka da ya shafi Nijeriya zai iya tura wasu kasashen Afirka su hade kai da kawancen, wanda hakan zai lalata tasirin tattalin arziki, siyasa, da soja na Abuja ta hanyar ta amfani da ECOWAS.

Abinda ya fi sanya damuwa, Turhan ya yi gargadin cewa yiwuwar samun gibi a rundunar sojin Najeriya na iya fadada ayyukan kungiyoyin ta'adda kamar Daesh da JNIM da ke da alaƙa da Al Qaeda, wadanda dukkan su ke da mayaka a fadin Sahel da Yammacin Afirka.

Haka nan, Kavak ya yi gargadin cewa shiga tsakani na Amurka zai iya ba da dama ga kungiyoyi kamar Boko Haram, ISWAP, da kungiyoyin masu aikata laifuka daban-daban da ke aiki a arewacin Nijeriya su fadada zuwa kudu, wanda hakan zai kawo cikas ga kasashe makwabta kamar Benin, Togo, da Kamaru.

"A wannan gaba, shiga tsakani na Amurka bisa hujjar'kare Kiristoci' zai iya zama rikicin yanki mai fadi cikin sauki," Kavak ya fada wa TRT World.