A ranar Litinin Iran, Amurka da mai shiga tsakani Pakistan suka sanar da yarjejeniyar fahimtar juna da ke da manufar kawo karshen yakin da ake yi a Gabas ta Tsakiya, wanda ya barke a ranar 28 ga Fabrairu a lokacin da Amurka da Isra’ila suka kaddamar da hare-hare kan Iran, tare da kashe jagoran addini na kasar da ya dade yana jagoranci, Ali Khamenei, da ma wasu manyan jagororin kasar da fararen hula da dama.

Amma nan da nan Iran ta mayar da martani ta hanyar kwace iko da mashigar teku ta Hormuz – hanyar da kasha 20 ciki 100 na man da ake amfani da shi a duniya ke bi – sannan ta dinga kai hare-hare da makamai mau linzami da jiragen yaki marasa matuki kan kasashen Gulf kawayen Amurka, inda aka lalata zaman lafiyar kasashen masu arzikin man fetur.

Yakin ya yi sanadiyyar rasa dubunnan rayuka, ya janyo rikicin makamashi a duniya tare da janyo hauhawar farashi a tattalin arzikin Amurka.

Ana tsammanin yarjejeniyar fahinmtar junan da Pakistan ta shiga tsakani wajen samarwa kuma aka shira snaya hannu a kai ranar Jumma’a, za ta kawar da kawanyar da aka yi wa mashigar teku ta Hormuz da tashoshin jiragen ruwan Iran.

Sannan Amurka da Iran za su dauki watanni biyu suna yi doguwar tattaunawa kan shirin nukiliyar Tehran da yiwuwar janye takunkumai.

Duk da bayyana cin nasara karara daga bangaren Iran da Amurka, masu nazari na cewa babu wani bangare da ya yi nasara.

“Dukkan bangarorin biyu sun yi asara, ta hanyoyi daban-daban,” Alan Eyre, jami’in diflomasiyyar Amurka, ya shaida wa TRT World.

Eyre, wanda na sahun gaba na jami’an diflomasiyyar Amurka da ake yin tattaunawar nukiliyar Iran da su tun fara ta a 2010 zuwa 2015, ya ce Amurka ta rasa wani karfinta na fada a ji saboda fara yakin da bai halatta ba kuma ba shi da wata hujja.

“Ta kuma rasa karfin ranazarwa na sojinta, an nuna duk da cewa Amurka na iya mamaya d akarfin soji, amma kuma tana iya kasa cim ma manufofinta,” in ji Eyre.

Iran ma ta yi asara saboda bayan yakin ‘za ta fito ne cikin talaucewar tattalin arziki”, tare da sabon ‘shugabanci mai yin yaki” wanda bai damu da biyan bukatun al’ummarta, Eyre ya bayyana, wanda shi ne mai jin yaren Fasa na farko da ya yi aiki a Ma’aikatar Tsaro ta Amurka.

Manufofin Yaƙin

A rikicin da suka yi da Iran, gwamnatin Shugaba Donald Trump da Isra’ila sun bi wasu manufofi da suka haɗa da rusa ko rage ƙarfin shirin nukiliya da makamai masu linzami na Iran, lalata ƙarfin rundunar ruwan Iran, raunana ƙungiyoyin kawancen Iran a yankin, har ma da kifar da gwamnatin Iran.

Iran kuwa ta bayyana yaƙin a matsayin gwagwarmayar kare kanta da tabbatar da rayuwar ƙasa. Maimakon neman nasara ta hanyar yaƙin gargajiya, Tehran ta fi amfani da dabarun yaƙin da ba na kai-tsaye ba domin ɗora wa Amurka da ƙawayenta tsadar yaƙi, da nufin tilasta cimma yarjejeniyar sulhu ta tattaunawa.

Babbar manufar Iran ita ce ta jure harin haɗin gwiwar Amurka da Isra’ila, ta ci gaba da riƙe iko a cikin gida, kuma ta kauce wa rugujewa.

Don cimma hakan, Iran ta yi ƙoƙarin hana ƙarin hare-hare ta hanyar kai farmakin makamai masu linzami da jiragen yaƙi marasa matuƙa kan wuraren Amurka da ƙawayenta.

Haka kuma ta kawo cikas ga zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa a mashigar Hormuz tare da amfani da ƙungiyoyin da ke goyon bayanta a yankin wajen kai hare-hare kan sojojin Amurka da Isra’ila.

Masanin harkokin tsaro Eyre ya yi iƙirarin cewa, ta wata fuskar, Iran ce ta yi nasara domin Amurka ta gaza cimma manyan manufofin dabarun da ta sa gaba a yaƙin.

“Iran ta iya jure wa farmakin haɗin gwiwar Amurka da Isra’ila ba tare da mika wuya ga buƙatun Amurka ba. Haka kuma ta yi amfani da ikon da take da shi a mashigar Hormuz a matsayin sabon makamin hana abokan gaba kai mata hari,” in ji shi.

Yarjejeniyar Tsagaita Wuta

Kungiyar International Crisis Group (ICG) ta bayyana cewa yarjejeniyar fahimtar juna (MoU) da Amurka da Iran suka cim ma tare da taimakon masu shiga tsakani ciki har da Pakistan, Qatar, Masar, Türkiye, Saudiyya da Oman, babban ci gaba ne duk da rashin amincewar juna da ke tsakaninsu.

A cewar kungiyar, yarjejeniyar ta bai wa kowanne bangare damar cewa ya samu wani irin nasara.

Amurka za ta iya cewa yarjejeniyar ta sake buɗe mashigar Hormuz ga zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa ba tare da tangarda ba, yayin da Iran za ta yi ikirarin cewa har yanzu tana da ikon rufe mashigar idan ta ga dama.

Kungiyar ta kara da cewa yarjejeniyar ta nuna cewa babu wani bangare da ya samu cikakkiyar nasara a yaƙin, amma kowannensu yana da ikon jefa ɗayan cikin matsin lamba mai tsanani.

Ali Vaez, darektan ayyuka a ICG, ya shaida wa TRT World cewa kammala yarjejeniyar ya taimaka wajen tabbatar da tsagaita wutar da a wasu lokuta ta kusa rushewa, kuma ya samar da wata hanya ta ci gaba da tattaunawa kan batun nukiliyar Iran.

Ya ce bangarorin biyu sun mayar da hankali kan muhimman abubuwa, yayin da suka ajiye batutuwa masu wahala zuwa gaba.

Batun Lebanon

Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump ya bayyana cewa yarjejeniyar ta haɗa da sake buɗe mashigar Hormuz ga jiragen ruwa ba tare da kuɗin haraji ba, da kuma dage katangar jiragen ruwan yaƙin Amurka da ta killace Iran, yayin da ake ci gaba da tattaunawa kan shirin nukiliya da sassauta takunkumi.

Jami’an Iran sun ce yarjejeniyar ta kuma tanadi dakatar da faɗa nan take a fannoni da dama, ciki har da Lebanon, suna mai cewa an ambaci Lebanon sau uku a cikin yarjejeniyar.

Firaministan Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, shi ma ya tabbatar da cewa bangarorin biyu sun amince da “gaggawar da kuma dindindin dakatar da ayyukan soja a dukkan fannonin yaƙi, ciki har da Lebanon.”

Ministan Harkokin Wajen Iran, Abbas Araghchi, ya jaddada cewa kawo ƙarshen yaƙi a dukkan fannonin rikici, ciki har da dakatar da hare-haren Isra’ila a Lebanon, sharadi ne na kawo ƙarshen rikicin Iran da Amurka.

Sai dai Isra’ila ta ce ba ta ɗaure kanta da wannan sashe na yarjejeniyar Amurka da Iran ba, kuma sojojinta ba za su dakatar da farmakin da suke yi a kudancin Lebanon ba.

Matsin Lamba Kan Netanyahu

Yarjejeniyar Amurka da Iran na iya jefa Firaministan Isra’ila, Benjamin Netanyahu, cikin sabon ƙalubalen siyasa yayin da yake shirin sake neman zaɓe daga baya a wannan shekara.

Masu sukarsa na cewa ya gaza cimma manufofi a Gaza, Iran da kuma Lebanon.

A ranar Litinin, shugabannin adawa da masu ra’ayin mazan jiya a Isra’ila sun soki yarjejeniyar, suna masu cewa ba za ta kare muradun Isra’ila ba kuma tana iya zama barazana ga tsaron ƙasar.

Sai dai a ranar Talata, Shugaba Trump ya nuna rashin jin daɗinsa kan yadda Isra’ila ke tafiyar da yaƙin Lebanon.

Da yake magana da manema labarai a Faransa yayin taron G7, Trump ya ce:

“Ban gamsu da yadda Isra’ila ta tafiyar da al’amuranta a Lebanon da Hezbollah ba. Ya kamata su gama abin cikin sauri. Lokacin da rikici ya yi tsawo, yana jefa inuwa mara kyau a kan babbar yarjejeniyar da muka cimma da Iran.”

Kungiyar ICG ta yi gargadin cewa duk wani sabon tashin hankali a Lebanon na iya jefa yarjejeniyar Amurka da Iran cikin haɗari, tana mai cewa Trump zai buƙaci amfani da tasirinsa domin hana hakan.

Eyre ya ce Iran ta samu nasarar haɗa rikicin Lebanon cikin dabarunta na yaƙi gaba ɗaya. Duk da cewa yana sa ran za a ci gaba da samun artabu tsakanin Isra’ila da Hezbollah a kudancin Lebanon, ya yi imanin cewa hakan ba zai sa Amurka ta sake komawa yaƙi da Iran ba.

A cewarsa, Trump ba zai so komawa yaƙi da Iran ba musamman yayin da zaɓukan tsakiyar wa’adi ke gabatowa, kuma saboda Iran za ta iya mayar da martani ta hanyar sake rufe mashigar Hormuz ko kai hari kan muhimman cibiyoyin ƙasashen Gulf.