Access to diesel, the fuel wey dey drive global economic activity, don turn new geopolitical battleground because of two big wars wey dey red hot, and e don cause chain reaction for different countries, with Global South dey suffer pass.

Diesel price don skyrocket for most parts of the world. Even for the US, wey still get power to subsidise retail consumers as the world’s richest country, diesel price don climb 70 percent since e attack Iran on February 28.

But the diesel wahala worse well-well for the Global South, because the poorer countries no get emergency stockpiles or big cash reserves to protect their people from the threat to basic food supply chains, transport and critical infrastructure.

Some countries like the Philippines don declare national energy emergency, while others like Sri Lanka don begin ration fuel. For some African countries, fuel price don jump as much as 150 percent.

For Pakistan, the government don start daily price revision system for diesel, and now diesel cost about 40 percent more than e be at the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Analysts talk say, unlike past price shocks wey mainly come from crude shortages, this time diesel price dey climb partly because refinery capacity don short.

Drone and missile attacks by Iran and im allies don target big crude processing plants for Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain.

Russian refineries too don come under series of attacks by Ukraine for wetin people dey call an ‘energy war’; Russian refineries now dey run at about 60 percent of capacity.

Diesel price don rise pass petrol — wey many people dey use for passenger cars — for two main reasons. One, diesel supply don already tight pass gasoline even before the Iran war start.

Two, the refineries for Gulf countries wey dem attack dey produce more diesel than petrol. No other country get idle capacity wey dem fit quickly use to replace the lost production.

As result, millions of barrels of Middle Eastern and Russian diesel don vanish from the global market.

To try fix the shortage, the US don make deal with Russia to buy diesel, even though heavy sanctions dey limit Moscow’s ability to sell energy worldwide.

Separate from that, US President Donald Trump announce one “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine on October 11, but Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy talk say e still dey wait to see the details of the deal.

Resource nationalism don show face

Analysts talk say the global diesel crisis don bring wave of ‘resource nationalism’ where top producers dey limit supplies, and this one dey push global ‘crack spreads’ (refining margins) to record highs.

Last month, Moscow extend strict ban on diesel exports through summer and autumn, saying shipments no go fully return until Western sanctions comot.

Likewise, Beijing temporarily pause fuel exports to prioritise domestic inventory.

Before the US strike diesel import deal with Russia, dem pressure European allies make dem release strategic reserves or dem go face US diesel export ban, and this move don raise global alarm.

Baris Alpaslan, economist and chief adviser at IC Holding — Turkish conglomerate wey get energy businesses — make difference between resource sovereignty and resource nationalism.

“I think we need to distinguish between the legitimate exercise of resource sovereignty and the broader consequences of resource nationalism,” na so e tell TRT World.

E talk say to protect domestic supply na real duty, especially during big crisis.

But the problem come when many countries begin do am at the same time.

“(Export bans) fit shift part of the economic cost of a geopolitical crisis onto countries wey almost no get role for the matter, particularly poorer, fuel-importing economies for Africa, Asia and Latin America,” e talk.

Higher diesel price quick dey push transport cost, food price and general inflation up, e add.

“The frustration wey dey for the Global South clear. Many of these countries na price-takers for global energy market, and dem no get enough fiscal power to protect their people from external price shocks,” e talk.

The combined effect fit cause deeper global shortage, and the poorest and most import-dependent economies go carry big share of the cost.

New battle lines

Yasar Sari, director of the Haydar Aliyev Centre for Eurasian Studies, tell TRT World say access to diesel don dey push countries to “form alliances around fuel supplies, rather than ideology”.

E point to India wey import more than 80 percent of im crude needs, and the wahala of balancing outside diplomacy with inside BRICS talks — group of emerging economies wey many dey from the Global South.

The May BRICS summit no fit release joint statement and only mention “differing views among some members”, and that one include both Iran and the UAE as full members.

The absence of joint statement show energy security matter dey weaken regional cohesion, Sari note.

China big inventories, wey dem estimate around 1.49 billion barrels and mostly crude, still give Beijing chance to hold product for home, e add.

European countries get the largest emergency diesel reserves, with France and Germany together holding more than one-third of EU strategic stocks, Sari say.

American public stocks fit only provide regional cushion, not global store, Sari note.

This na why the US don pressure France and Germany to draw down those stocks, holding the threat of restrictions on US diesel exports as leverage ahead of the US midterms wey dey planned for the first week of November.

Sari mention the 1973 Arab oil embargo when Gulf producers cut supply to states wey back Israel.

But e point the difference between then and now: “(Fuel) weaponisation no be so much about producers withholding supply again but more about importers hoarding am – reverse embargo wey vulnerable nations dey scramble to secure wetin remain.”

According to Alpaslan, energy access dey turn more and more into geopolitical leverage.

Government wey short of diesel for farms, freight or power fit more likely accept supplier wey fit promise reliable deliveries or better financing terms, he says.

Im worry be say energy insecurity fit reduce the foreign-policy choices wey poorer countries fit make.

“The real test be whether access to essential fuel go still dey governed mainly by reliable trade and commercial considerations, or e go dey used more and more as political pressure,” he talk.

Survival beyond wars

Sari talk say China and South Korea fit protect their home markets and limit exports. Countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Ethiopia no fit do the same.

“Fuel access no dey cause clean geopolitical split, but e dey accelerate fragmentation, with each country survival strategy shaped by im reserves and ability to pay,” e say.

How long dem fit manage am?

Sari talk say the window to manage the crisis without gbege wey go scatter the global economy narrow — e likely measure in weeks, not months.

Even if political settlement happen, normalcy no go quickly return, e note.

E describe the G7’s 100-million-barrel release as gesture wey only dey buy small time.

Ending both wars today go reduce the war premium nearly immediately, e says. But physical supply recovery go take months to years because refineries don damage, shipping don disrupt, and trade flows don change structurally.