Wetin dey happen: Wetin be di possible scenarios if USA attack Iran

Di unstable Middle East dey balance for edge for another big fight, as US don begin gather huge naval armada near di Iranian coast, and President Donald Trump dey increase im strong talk against di leadership of di Shia-majority country.

As US dey prepare for possible attack on Iran, Tehran don vow say dem go reply full force, and dia Shia allies for Middle East — from Iraq to Yemen and Lebanon — don signalled say dem no go siddon look if America attack Iran.

Reports dey talk say Trump administration dey apparently aim regime change for Iran, and dem dey threaten to target both Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and top leaders of di country's hardline Revolutionary Guards. Analysts still no rule out say US fit strike Iran nuclear sites and other military things like di big stock of ballistic missiles.

“We have a big force going toward Iran. I’d rather not see anything happen, but we’re watching them very closely,” Trump talk last week, just small days after violent civilian protests shake di nation wey dey face serious economic crisis.

Analysts feel say di US military build-up na serious matter.

“Di influx of US assets into di region mean say dem fit do anything from small strike for specific targets to broad and sustained campaign,” Joost Hiltermann, special adviser on MENA for di International Crisis Group, talk.

If Trump administration choose di broader option, dem fit use “more sweeping objectives” to undermine Iran — meaning wide-ranging US strikes fit hit military bases, civilian infrastructure and even military generals.

Hiltermann talk say US attack fit cause confusion for inside Iranian leadership, and di big question na: Trump go target di Supreme Leader or di whole leadership for Tehran?

US don dey use political assassinations before as tool to destabilise places for di world. Plenti people for di region fear say Trump administration fit use di same playbook for Iran.

“If na di former, others inside di system fit try take control, since Ali Khamenei don enter im mid-80s and talk about succession don dey for horizon for years,” Hiltermann tell TRT World.

“If na di latter, e fit certainly create vacuum,” Hiltermann project.

Iran don warn say any attempt to target Ali Khamenei go be seen as declaration of war.

But anyhow, Hiltermann believe say Iran no go just roll over, and US sabi this fact too.

“Iran — and some of im non-state allies for di region — don warn say dem go retaliate no matter how big di US attack go be. Di sending of defensive systems to US bases and allies show say Washington no just dey talk,” Hiltermann add.

Other analysts no rule out say US fit cause heavy damage to Iranian military capacity and infrastructure — from oil refineries to power plants and other energy facilities.

“Di US military get capacity to wreak havoc across Iran,” Omer Ozgul, former Turkish military officer and expert on Iranian politics, talk.

But Ozgul talk say US no get di ability to install new regime and decide Iran future, because of di country's complicated history and political structure.

What if Khamenei dey assassinated?

For one of im most direct attacks on di Iranian leader, Trump recently call Khamenei a “sick man” and say time don reach to end im 37-year rule.

Experts still feel say even if US manage to remove Khamenei, small chance say di post-1979 Iranian political system go collapse — system wey base on di supreme leader and di Shia religious order.

“While US fit think say Iranian regime go collapse if Ali Khamenei comot, like wetin happen to Saddam Hussein for Iraq or Muammar Gaddafi for Libya, di leadership for Tehran no go just give up like dat,” Oral Toga, researcher for di Centre for Iranian Studies, talk.

Iraq Baath regime collapse after Saddam capture and execution by Iraqi courts under US occupation in 2003, and dat one scatter political wahala wey last years.

For Libya, Gaddafi killing lead to government collapse and start bloody civil war.

But analysts talk say Iran different from Libya and Iraq — dem borders draw by Western colonial powers — because Iran get long history under different dynasties. Di present supreme Shia religious leadership form after 1979 revolution wey remove di secular Shah wey rule since after WWI.

Both Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly get Turkic roots.

“Khamenei no be secular leader; na religious head of Iran and im assassination fit trigger things wey pass imagination,” Ozgul tell TRT World.

Other analysts agree. “For Iran, plenty forces ready to resist to save di government no matter di cost,” Fatemeh Karimkhan, Tehran-based journalist, talk, referring to both Shia ideology and groups like di Revolutionary Guards.

Analysts also point out say Iran fate go depend on di kind attack US go launch — air strikes without boots on di ground get limited power to change anything major for Tehran.

Under Khamenei authority, dem get “confederation” of different forces loyal to di 1979 Revolution wey fit quickly replace am if im assassinated, Toga, an Ankara-based analyst, talk.

“Dem don already prepare internal security plan in case of Khamenei assassination,” e tell TRT World.

Di security plan don decentralise, so different pro-government groups fit take initiative against anti-regime elements supported by US. Toga warn say dis fit lead to plenty bloodshed across Iran.

What about civil war?

Even though majority for Iran speak Persian, country dey diverse — at least 40 percent of di population belong to different non-Persian ethnic groups, and analysts say dis fit matter if US attack happen.

“Di protests show deep divide between di state and society, and security forces ready to use violence. Dat means some internal unrest between regime hardline supporters and dem wey oppose am na real possibility,” Hiltermann says.

“I no see civil war likely for Iran because no reliable opposition groups fit gather anti-regime elements behind one united leadership,” Toga says, adding say opposition groups no get recognised leaders wey fit lead Iranian people against di current regime.

Some Western media point Reza Pahlavi — son of di ousted Shah — who call protesters to street against Khamenei earlier dis month, as possible alternative. But analysts no see am as true leader; many dey view am as person wey close to Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“Reza Pahlavi, even imself, no dey plan to return to Iran,” Karimkhan says. She adds say although some people still support monarchy inside Iran, dem no be many.

“Dem far less for number and for ability,” she says.