How Türkiye dey emerge as a voice of sanity for di Iran war

Like previous fight dem for Middle East, dis Iran war don put Türkiye for front as e get special position for military, diplomatic and economic mata, and analysts talk say e ready to play important role.

United States get at least 19 military bases for Middle East, and most of dem dey for energy-rich countries like Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.

Even with US military presence and im strong defence system wey dem deploy for the region, all these countries plus Jordan and Iraq don face Iranian missile strikes as Tehran hit American bases.

While Iranian ballistic missiles and drones dey fall for Gulf cities, Türkiye — wey be NATO member and non-Arab Middle Eastern power with strong army — neva suffer that kain wahala, except one missile wey NATO defence system intercept for Mediterranean before e enter Turkish airspace.

At the same time, Türkiye don reinforce im status as neutral power wey dey try stop the crisis make e no escalate.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan send condolences go Tehran after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamene by the Israeli military, but e still see Iran attacks on Gulf countries as unacceptable, warning say the region fit be 'dragged into a circle of fire'.

Türkiye don urge the warring sides make dem end the conflict as soon as possible, and dem call the US-Israel attack on Iran a 'clear violation' of international law.

Ankara, wey for long don push for peace for the Ukraine conflict as neutral state, don offer to mediate between the US and Iran to secure the cessation of their hostilities.

Di voice of sanity

'Türkiye don do and go continue to do every effort to end the war. For this stage, the first goal na ceasefire. No matter the circumstances, Türkiye go always follow strategy wey favour stability,' Oral Toga, researcher for the Ankara-based Centre for Iranian Studies, talk.

Ankara get enough experience and capacity to mediate between adversaries — from East Africa to the Ukraine war, Toga talk — but the scale of the current war wey three different powers dey fight across the Middle East need 'the will of warring sides to negotiate', Toga tell TRT World.

Even though Türkiye be NATO member, e don take neutral position on the Ukraine war as e dey try keep im ties with Moscow intact. Experts say Israel clear role for sparking the military confrontation with Iran na one reason why Turkish leadership dey keep neutral.

'Türkiye no want take position against Iran. E no want to be one of the perpetrators of the misfortune of a country wey e get strong historical and cultural ties with,' Ozgur Korpe, academic at National Defence University, talk.

'Türkiye position go depend on how Iran behave towards Ankara. Indeed, Türkiye official statements dey go this direction. For these reasons, Türkiye don choose neutrality as strategy. And e go continue to do so,' Korpe tell TRT World.

The academic see say, like the Ukraine war, Türkiye probably go adopt 'active neutrality' rather than 'passive neutrality' as im evolving strategic approach towards international crises.

'Türkiye fit only become involved in the war if im territory were targeted. Na risk wey none of the currently warring parties go want nor go dare take,' Korpe add.

A haven in times of crisis

Experts believe say Türkiye anti-war position and the current mediation efforts underline im unique ability to be a regional haven during such crises, from the US invasion of Iraq to the Syrian civil war.

Even though Türkiye and Iran get political differences on issues like post-Assad Syria and Hezbollah role for Lebanon, Ankara historic ties with Tehran allow Erdogan to understand and deal with the Shia-majority country's leadership effectively, Omer Ozgul, former Turkish army officer and one-time Türkiye military attache in Tehran, talk.

Other experts agree with Ozgul assessment.

'No reason for Iran to adopt hostile stance towards Türkiye, and such move would be strategic mistake for Iran for many respects, especially from the perspective of its war strategies. Therefore, Türkiye go continue to be safe haven, far from conflict,' Toga say.

This approach also make sense for Gulf countries wey economy don depend well on energy exports and food imports, plus their cyclical tourism sector.

All Gulf countries face grim dilemma with the raging war, as Iran don effectively block the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting vital energy shipments.

Türkiye 'fair position' towards the region's conflicts no go pass unnoticed by Iran or the Gulf states, Ozgul say. 'Türkiye go continue to be safe haven for both the Gulf states and Iran,' he tell TRT World.