Israel opened a new phase in its genocidal war against Palestinians this week, launching a ground invasion in Gaza City, the most densely populated area in the besieged enclave packed with nearly one million civilians. 

The assault – with the avowed aim of eliminating the resistance group Hamas – comes in the wake of a damning report by a UN commission, which confirmed what was already known: Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, where it has killed over 65,000 people and displaced at least 200,000 Palestinians since October 2023. 

The Netanyahu government also secured the green light from the Trump administration to launch the offensive despite growing global opinion against Israel, which has also created a famine in Gaza by cutting off aid supplies. 

During a visit to Israel, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that an end to the Gaza war can only be achieved by military means and not through diplomacy. 

“It may require ultimately a concise military operation to eliminate them,” Rubio said, referring to Hamas, during a press conference, where he stood alongside Netanyahu, against whom the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant in November. 

But can Israel actually achieve what it has failed to do in nearly two years – eliminate Hamas and end the war?

“A large-scale assault on Gaza City may allow Israel to seize territory and inflict heavy damage on Hamas, but it is unlikely to ‘end the war’ in the decisive sense Israeli leaders promise,” says Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King's College, London and director of MENA Analytica. 

“Gaza City is densely urban, with fortified neighbourhoods and extensive tunnels, making it one of the hardest battlefields imaginable,” Krieg tells TRT World. “Even if the Israeli army takes control above ground, Hamas fighters can retreat underground or blend into civilian areas.”

Despite many setbacks over the years and the recent killing of its senior leadership by Israel, the group has managed to emerge stronger, drawing strength from popular support and the Palestinian spirit of resistance. 

Sami al Arian, a leading Palestinian academic and director of the Centre for Islam and Global Affairs at Istanbul Zaim University, for one, is convinced that Israel’s military will fail once again.

“I don’t believe they will be successful…The Zionist regime has not been able to extinguish its fire or dampen its resolve to continue fighting till the invaders are repelled,” Arian tells TRT World, referring to the Palestinian resolve to fight the Israeli occupation. 

‘A grinding insurgency’

Even some top Israeli security officials, including leading generals, have expressed doubts over Netanyahu’s escalation and pointed out that the military might not be in top shape after waging a war for nearly two years. 

Israeli public opinion has also grown against the Netanyahu government over the never-ending war, while families of hostages fear that the Gaza City offensive might lead to the death of the Israeli captives in Hamas’ custody. It is believed that Hamas is holding the hostages in its sophisticated tunnel system under Gaza City. 

This week witnessed one of the largest protests against the Netanyahu government within Israel, while similar demonstrations were held across different countries like France, the UK and Spain. 

Several countries, as well as the UN, have warned that the attack on Gaza City would have catastrophic consequences for the hundreds of thousands of civilians trapped in the area.

Palestinian political analyst Yousef Alhelou says Israel wants to destroy Gaza City because “they believe it’s the hub of Palestinian resistance”.

And with its resources considerably drained, Hamas will have a tough task in facing the Israeli military, Alhelou tells TRT World. 

But despite the losses, Hamas remains a considerably strong fighting force capable of engaging Israel in “a grinding insurgency”, according to Krieg.

And in the light of past campaigns, Israel cannot achieve “total victory”, he says, pointing to Israeli commanders who admit that “completely dismantling Hamas could take years, not months”.  

According to different estimates, Hamas could still have 10,000 to 20,000 fighters, its ranks swelled by thousands of new, though less trained, recruits.

Israeli officials, however, put the number at a modest 2,000-3,000 fighters. 

“Hamas has been badly weakened, but it is far from destroyed,” Krieg says, adding that while the group’s long-range rocket arsenal is mostly depleted, it still has mortars, short-range projectiles, anti-tank weapons, drones, and a large supply of explosives for improvised bombs. 

Krieg also draws attention to the fact that Hamas’s large tunnel network  — believed to be 350-450 miles in length — “remains partly intact, especially under Gaza City, giving Hamas mobility and surprise options”. 

Hamas will rely on guerrilla tactics like ambushes, snipers, IEDs, and small hit-and-run teams that can prolong the conflict even as its conventional capacity dwindles, he adds. 

Why is nobody stopping the genocide? 

Despite mounting global criticism of its war in Gaza, Netanyahu has doubled down on his war tactics, backed by steadfast US support.

“Washington provides arms and political cover, reflecting both strategic ties and the influence of pro-Israel constituencies in US politics,” says Krieg. 

Regional efforts to end the war too have not seen much success.

On September 15, leaders of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation gathered in the Qatari capital Doha, which was recently targeted by Israel. The meeting reinforced their solidarity with the Gulf state, but there was no real outcome from the meeting against the Netanyahu government. 

“Regional players like Egypt and Qatar are focused on mediation, not confrontation with Israel. And Europe is divided — some states voice strong criticism, others back Israel’s right to defend itself,” says Krieg. 

Under US protection, the Netanyahu government continues to push its narrative that Tel Aviv is targeting Hamas, not Palestinian civilians.   

“This framing has effectively given the Israeli military a blank cheque and a perception of impunity, despite mounting civilian deaths and legal concerns. Without US pressure, there is no coalition willing or able to physically prevent Israel’s assault, even as humanitarian and legal objections grow louder,” he adds. 

Others, like Palestinian writer and academic Abir Kopty, agree.

The West is enabling the genocide against Palestinians because Israel’s war on Gaza has not only a Zionist character but also an imperialistic feature, which goes against “anyone who raises their head” against joint Israeli-Western interests. 

“They won't stop,” Kopty tells TRT World. 

“Israelis have been telling us their goal right from day one, but no one wanted to pay attention…Their goal is to annihilate Gaza. They don’t mind killing a million Palestinians and taking over the enclave. The world will have to reckon with what they allowed for 730 days.”