Noureldein GhanemDuring President Donald Trump's Middle East trip in May 2025, which included visits to key Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, the Gulf states pledged investments in the US totalling more than $2 trillion across various sectors like defence, aviation, artificial intelligence (AI), energy, and infrastructure.
A key Western ally and host to the largest American base in the region, Qatar pledged up to $1.2 trillion in US investments. This aligned with Trump's transactional approach to international relations and his "America First" doctrine.
Doha even gifted Trump a $400 million luxury aircraft to serve as the new Air Force One — the official presidential plane.
"As the dealmaker in chief, President Trump's latest achievement in Qatar is another win for America," announced the White House, hailing the agreement and declaring "allies like Qatar are partnering in the United States' success."
Yet Doha's strong ties with Washington could not shield it from Israeli attacks on September 9, in which Israel tried to assassinate Palestinian peace negotiators while violating Qatar's territory and sovereignty.
The attack on key mediator in Gaza ceasefire talks resulted in six fatalities: five Hamas members and a Qatari security official. Qatar cited its inability to detect the Israeli missiles and accused the US of delayed alerts.
Whether Washington knew of the attack 50 minutes beforehand is uncertain, but Doha's response has been building since the attacks.
On Monday, it hosted an emergency summit of Arab and Islamic countries in which participants pledged to back the country in whatever response it wants to take against Israel.
On Tuesday, senior American diplomat Marco Rubio was in Qatar to reassure Doha after the Israeli strikes undermined security pledges to the Gulf emirate from its key ally.
"What Arab nations need to consider is whether their current relations with the US genuinely serve the best interests of their citizens. To me, the answer to that is clear: Arab nations could play a far less subservient role to US interests, to the greater benefit of their citizens, than they do today. But that is a judgment for each Arab nation to make on its own," George Bisharat, a professor of law and a prominent commentator on the Middle East affairs, tells TRT World.
Ever since Israel's attack on Qatar, that has caused a political earthquake in the region, questions are being raised if the US alliance — exchanging investments for security — is worthwhile when Tel Aviv is the bold aggressor, with Washington unable to leash it?
Bisharat says that for people who hold that perception of ties with the US solely based on economic ties, Washington would still find its investments in Israel profitable, despite the fact that one side — Arab nations — gives to the US, while the other — Israel — only takes.
In contrast to the billions of dollars invested in the US by Arab countries, Washington allocates $3.8 billion annually in military funding to Israel. Since October 2023, the US has spent more than $22 billion supporting Israel's war on Gaza and military actions in neighbouring countries.
Since 1946, the US has provided over $310 billion in military and economic aid to Israel, adjusted for inflation, according to the US think-tank, Council on Foreign Relations.
"I don't think Arab nations win by comparing their relations with the US to those between Israel and the US on a purely transactional basis," says Bisharat.
US policy towards Israel, he says, "is the product of more than that — it is also the product of domestic politics, with cultural, religious, and hard political influences that are mostly absent (or even negative) in US relations with the Arab world."
Gulf in 'difficult situation now'
For decades, Gulf Arabs have chosen the US as a linchpin of their security.
But ever since Israel began carrying out its genocide in besieged Gaza — where Tel Aviv has reportedly killed more than 65,000 Palestinians, wounded over 165,000, which experts say is an undercount since thousands are feared buried under the rubble of bombed homes — it has vociferously declared its intent to occupy more Arab lands, including pursuing "Eretz Israel".
This is a Zionist expansionist vision that lays claim to the occupied West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, as well as Türkiye.
Experts suggest that despite the economic commitments made by Gulf Arab states, the US will continue to remain beholden to Israel.
"The US has always sought to maintain a delicate balance with Israel and its Arab partners that always becomes difficult at times of regional conflict, particularly when Israel is involved. Israeli interests clearly come before those of others in the region, and that was demonstrated by this attack," Michael Hanna, US Programme Director at the International Crisis Group (ICG), tells TRT World.
"That being said, the region has no alternatives when it comes to security. The US remains the only plausible option as a security guarantor. And so, the Gulf finds itself in a difficult situation now with real questions about the intentions and reliability of its key security partner, but with no credible way to hedge its bets," he adds.
Hanna states that the economic ties of wealthy Arab states, which are highly beneficial for the US, could be impacted as Arab countries are not receiving reciprocal benefits in this relationship.
"Trump and members of his administration have gone out of their way to praise Qatar and its role as a key US partner in the region. And, of course, Qatar is a major investor in the US and relies on the United States for its security. As such, any developments, like (Israeli) air strikes, that raise fundamental questions about the utility of the security partnership with the United States will complicate US-Qatar bilateral relations and will also raise similar questions throughout the Gulf," he adds.
With Israel showing no respect for sovereignty in the Middle East and threatening further attacks, Hanna says the region, not just Qatar, would have concerns over the reliability of the US as a security guarantor.
"This is a region that has made a long-term bet on the United States and now has cause for concern about the reliability of its security guarantor," Hanna argues.
Bisharat states that Israel's attack on Qatar — despite both Israel and the US allowing it to host Hamas members for ongoing negotiations — has created a significant trust deficit between the US and Qatar.
"This [the Israeli attack] will cause Qatar to have major distrust of the US, since it is not plausible that the Israeli attack against Hamas leaders was done without prior US knowledge," Bisharat argues.
"Needless to say, distrust is not a formula for a friendly and cooperative relationship between nations," he adds.
Israeli influence in Washington power corridors
Like many US presidents, Trump has consistently favoured Israel among Washington's regional partners, even when this has been costly for the US.
An example of this is the false-flag attack by Israel on the USS Liberty in June 1967. Israel is said to have attacked the American spy ship in an attempt to attribute blame to Egypt and drag America in the Six-Day Arab-Israel war.
The attack resulted in the killing of 34 Americans and injuries to over 170 others. Official investigations into the incident concluded that it was a "tragic mistake", but many survivors maintained that the attack was deliberate.
In 2002, during a congressional hearing, then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu advocated for the US invasion of Iraq. He falsely claimed, without providing evidence, that there was "no question whatsoever" that then President Saddam Hussein was developing nuclear weapons.
The US war on Iraq reportedly left over 460,000 Iraqi and nearly 4,500 Americans dead. Independent studies indicate that the death toll is significantly higher, particularly among Iraqis.
Israeli leaders, such as Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Shimon Peres, and Benjamin Netanyahu, publicly advocated for a US invasion of Iraq. Neoconservatives with affiliations to pro-Israel organisations also promoted war on Iraq.
Lobbying influenced Congress, leading to resolutions backing Israel and increased aid. Jewish organisations supported the war, emphasising Israel's security.
In September 2002, American official Philip Zelikow stated that the "real threat" from Iraq was not to the US but to Israel, a viewpoint he considered an unstated factor in the case for war. He was serving as a member of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board at the time.
In June 2025, the US bombed Iran's nuclear facilities despite being in the middle of negotiations that were disrupted by Israel's unprovocative attacks on Iran.
This is a pattern that Israel feeds on, Kathy Kelly, peace activist and board president of the non-profit World Beyond Wars, tells TRT World.
"President Trump systematically sows seeds of fear, causing anxiety about so-called 'enemies' in places many people couldn't find on a map. Israel apparently relies on the Trump administration to deem such a strike [on Qatar] 'worth it,' overlooking the tragic loss of six precious lives," says Kelly.
"For Trump, security rests in acquiring wealth and prestige. Like Prime Minister Netanyahu, he also craves immunity from criminal prosecution," she adds.
There were some points of friction between the US and Israel in the early days of the administration that resulted in foreign policy changes in the region, which included a rollback of sanctions on post-Assad Syria, the sudden halt to aggression against Yemen's Houthis, and the attempted revival of nuclear talks with Iran.
Nevertheless, Hanna says Israel's attack on Qatar reflects how tightly the US and Israel have become again, and reflects the shift in the US foreign policy in the region back to "near-total alignment" with Tel Aviv.
"With that sense of total US backing, Israel has been operating throughout the region without constraints, and the strikes [on Doha] are a stark reflection of that," Hanna says.
"And they (the strikes) also make clear that recent efforts at securing a Gaza ceasefire have not been undertaken in good faith," he adds.
Bisharat warns that the attack is another indication that Trump allowed Israel to "call the shots without restrictions", regardless of any violation of international law that the US itself is demonstrating in other regions.
"Of course, this is consistent with the lawless approach that Trump has taken both within the United States and internationally, most recently demonstrated in the bombing of the Venezuelan ship and killing of its 11 crew members," Bisharat says.
"Power is all that matters to Trump."
'Not a case of deception'
Since October 2023, Qatar has emerged as a primary mediator in ceasefire negotiations and prisoner-captive swap deals between Israel and Hamas, often in coordination with the US and Egypt.
Doha hosted a Hamas delegation at the urging of the US to facilitate backchannel communications and mediation in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Yet, Netanyahu, a repeated offender in sabotaging truce deals regarding Gaza, has criticised Doha, cautioning that action would be taken against Hamas "wherever they are."
The US claims it was informed only 10 minutes after the strikes began, leading to accusations that Washington failed to prevent or adequately respond to the incursion into the airspace of Qatar, which hosts Al Udeid Air Base, a sprawling desert facility that serves as a main regional military hub for American forces.
Experts suggest that the US should have reacted immediately, considering the substantial US military base present there.
"It has been widely reported that the Israeli attack in Qatar was pre-cleared with the US, and that would make sense, considering the large US Air Force base in Qatar, which might have reacted militarily to an attack of unknown origin," Bisharat says.
"It seems more likely that Trump was fully aware of the impending attack, and his comments about it, although deliberately misleading, suggest that he was perfectly fine with it, and likely in full agreement with its aims," he states.
Kelly says that Trump never challenged Netanyahu on the genocide in Gaza or the illegal settlements' expansion in the occupied West Bank, casting doubt on the possibility that Netanyahu deceived him on this attack.
"President Trump has partnered with Prime Minister Netanyahu in waging genocidal attacks against Palestinians. President Trump has never challenged the Israelis to acknowledge their nuclear arsenal, dismantle their occupation of Palestinian lands, and comply with international law. Prime Minister Netanyahu applauds President Trump's fantasy of a Gaza Riviera," Kelly adds.
"He (Netanyahu) counts on President Trump to shrug when hearing daily reports about agonies Palestinians endure. Asked about Israel's attack against Qatar, President Trump deemed it 'worthy,'" she adds.
Hanna says that, if the White House claim is true, it wouldn't be a case of Netanyahu deceiving Trump, but an embarrassment to the US administration.
"If the White House's narrative is proven to be accurate, then Israel informed the Trump administration at a point in time when there was not enough advance warning to halt the strike, making clear that it is operating without fully taking into account the interests and equities of its primary security guarantor," Hanna says.
"That is not a case of deception, but it is a clear slight and an embarrassment for the Trump administration."
