Tauseef JavedFew names in Asian history evoke as much strategic significance as the Khyber Pass. Once a corridor for conquerors and caravans, this storied gateway is now poised for a new role as a conduit for freight trucks and cargo trains linking South and Central Asia.
In place of invading armies, it now offers the promise of trade routes and regional integration, with the potential to reshape the economic fortunes of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the broader region.
The Khyber Pass lies along the rugged border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, a geography that, in recent decades, has been more synonymous with instability than opportunity.
But Pakistan is now seeking to transform this historically volatile frontier into a gateway for regional prosperity.
With the launch of the Khyber Pass Economic Corridor (KPEC), Islamabad is stepping into a new role as a connector between South Asia, Central Asia and beyond.
Backed by nearly half a billion dollars from the World Bank and strategically positioned within the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) corridors, KPEC has the potential to reshape centuries-old regional trade routes.
Geography plays a pivotal role in shaping a nation’s strategic interests, and in South Asia’s evolving landscape, it’s geoeconomics–not just geopolitics—that’s driving the agenda.
All the major powers want a foothold in the region. China is already a dominant player, advancing its ambitions through the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
India is asserting its connectivity vision through its participation in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
Russia sees an opportunity to access Asian markets, and, of course, the United States wants a reliable route to Central Asia via the Arabian Sea to compete with its rivals.
These shifting dynamics have sharpened Pakistan’s focus on its own geographic potential.
Economy is the mantra
In response, Islamabad’s National Security Policy 2022-2026 places geoeconomics at the heart of its strategic vision, with the goal of transforming Pakistan into a regional hub and revitalising its ailing economy.
In the spotlight now is Phase Two of CPEC, set to connect the deepwater port of Gwadar with China’s Xinjiang province, boosting connectivity with the world's second-largest economy to the east.
To the west, KPEC offers Pakistan a parallel opportunity, opening a strategic gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
As part of CAREC corridors 5 and 6, KPEC provides the shortest land route linking Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and the Arabian Sea—reviving a historic artery of commerce with modern infrastructure and renewed economic promise.
KPEC provides a more secure and practical route compared to northern alternatives or Iranian routes—rendered unviable due to US-Iran tensions.
So, if the US does decide to participate, it could be a regional breakthrough, boosting investor confidence and encouraging European involvement. This win-win scenario would position Pakistan as a central hub for regional trade and lay the groundwork for deeper economic integration.
The Trump administration’s disposition toward Pakistan augurs well for this outcome, as focus on business-driven diplomacy has already led to a favourable new trade deal between Islamabad and Washington.
If Trump concludes that geography and economic opportunity align, US investment in the corridor could bring capital, technology and resource exploration capabilities, offering a soft power alternative to hard power strategies that failed in Afghanistan.
By leveraging its economic strengths, the US could establish a vital land bridge for trade and influence across Pakistan, Afghanistan and right up to Russia’s Central Asian borders.
The road ahead
Naturally, there are risks with this approach: Afghanistan, the graveyard of failed military occupations, lies at the heart of KPEC. Its instability has long posed economic and security challenges for Pakistan.
But advocates of the historic Khyber Pass’s potential as a modern trade corridor point to Central Asia’s vast reserves of copper, lithium, uranium and rare earth minerals waiting to be extracted and exported.
Afghanistan’s mineral wealth is estimated at over a trillion dollars, while Pakistan is rich in copper, gold and potentially oil.
The future of Central Asia lies in the exploitation of this wealth based on long-term trade and investment instead of military invasions.
In this context, Pakistan’s geoeconomic strategy must highlight the long-term intersection of geopolitics and geoeconomics, as moving beyond a historically transactional relationship presents a potential game-changer for the country.
On the economic side, the recent US-Pakistan trade deal—with tariffs at 19 percent compared to India’s 50 percent – is a promising sign, especially as the US remains Pakistan’s largest export market.
Islamabad should seize this momentum to push for more US investment in KPEC, offering American firms a stake in logistics and infrastructure.
On the political front, as long as tensions between the US and China persist, Pakistan could position itself as a neutral connector, leveraging the economic gains offered by KPEC to balance both powers within a shared geoeconomic framework.
While Pakistan has been viewed for the past two decades in the context of conflict in Afghanistan, this must now change, given its immense potential as a regional conduit.
Shifting international geoeconomic dynamics now give Islamabad a chance to reassert its relevance by creating a modern-day Silk Road through KPEC.
