Ethiopia claimed on Thursday that forces in the northern Tigray region were preparing an offensive against the federal government in the coming days, raising fears of a return to war.

Tigrayan forces fought a two-year conflict earlier this decade against federal troops backed by local militias. The conflict killed roughly 600,000 people, according to African Union estimates.

The war ended with an uneasy peace deal in 2022, which has increasingly come under strain.

Direct clashes between Tigrayan forces and the federal army broke out again in late 2025, for the first time since the signing of the peace deal.

'New conflict'

Hardline elements of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a party with tense relations with Addis Ababa, have "decided to launch an offensive against the federal government in the coming days", said Ethiopia's East African affairs minister Getachew Reda and intelligence chief Redwan Hussein.

In an editorial on the website of Al Jazeera, they said the TPLF was preparing to "trigger a new conflict."

The TPLF has not yet responded to requests for comment from AFP.

The federal authorities have previously accused the TPLF of growing closer to Eritrea, although the group has denied this.

'Dangerous'

"It is imperative that everyone with any leverage or influence over the TPLF exert maximum pressure on them to avoid a relapse into conflict," the piece said.

It went on to warn that "a resumption of hostilities would be dangerous and would have serious regional consequences."

The TPLF effectively ruled the whole of Ethiopia for nearly 30 years until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed rose to power in 2018.

Abiy's government barred the TPLF from political activity last year.

Regional parliament

At the end of April, the group said they had reinstated a regional parliament, which had been deemed illegitimate.

"In clear violation of the (2022 peace deal), the rump TPLF has dismantled the regional interim administration and set up its own illegal administration," the editorial said.

Tigray had a population of around six million people before the war. Around one million remain displaced from the conflict.

The region did not take part in nationwide elections held on June 1.