Promise wey opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, make say e go bring back fuel subsidy if dem elect am don give new life to Nigeria race for Aso Rock, wey be seat of power.

E don still put fuel subsidy matter back for centre of public debate for Africa biggest population country.

For recent media interviews, Atiku — wey be vice-president under President Olusegun Obasanjo — don criticise how President Bola Ahmed Tinubu sharply comot the subsidy, and e blame that decision for the way e make economic wahala deep for plenty Nigerians.

Atiku bin be vice-president when the Obasanjo government start dey reduce fuel subsidy small‑small.

Now e talk say e no need experts to explain to am the impact of subsidy removal — e dey see am plain for how cost of living don rise for millions of Nigerians.

That promise touch people for internet, as many Nigerians don show support and dey link the subsidy removal to higher transport fares and expensive food.

The matter don even make President Tinubu and the governors of Nigeria’s 36 states announce some measures wey dem talk say go reduce transport costs from October 1, 2026.

Echo wey Occupy Nigeria bring

Nigeria don already begin to dey reduce fuel subsidy small‑small before 2012. But matter blow up on January 1, 2012 when then‑President Goodluck Jonathan announce say dem don comot the subsidy.

That decision trigger protests for all corners of Nigeria and even for some countries abroad. The protests dem later call Occupy Nigeria, and dem turn into one of the biggest demonstrations wey the country don see for recent history.

The removal mean say price of one litre petrol go jump from 65 naira to 141 naira — the price wey dem dey sell am for neighbouring countries like Niger, Cameroon, Benin and Chad.

For plenty Nigerians the increase too much, so dem comot for streets to protest because dem feel say government don remove one of the small benefits wey citizens of oil‑producing country dey enjoy.

But the government argue say the subsidy no sustainable. Nigeria don spend $8 billion on fuel subsidies the previous year, according to then‑Central Bank governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi — wey now be the Emir of Kano.

For a stakeholders' meeting organised by the Newspaper Proprietors’ Association of Nigeria in December 2011, Sanusi talk say the country don spend 1.4 trillion naira — about one third of total government expenditure — to subsidise petroleum products.

E argue say better make Nigeria subsidise production instead of consumption, and warn say if subsidy continue, future governments go carry heavy and unsustainable debt.

Plenty Nigerians reject wetin government dey talk, so the protests continue. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) join the demonstrations and on January 5 issue ultimatum to shut down the country unless government reverse the decision.

Wetin start as spontaneous protest later get organised labour leaders wey government fit negotiate with. After talks with labour unions, threat to shut down the whole country suspend.

At the end, some Nigerians die during the protests, and the government partly reverse the removal and introduce the Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme (SURE‑P).

Incentive for smuggling

The subsidy discussion no go finish after Goodluck Jonathan leave office in 2015 and Muhammadu Buhari become president. By Buhari second term, government dey more open say dem want stop fuel subsidy.

For January 2022, Buhari's finance minister Zainab Ahmed talk say federal government remain determined to remove the subsidy. Buhari government finally no carry out full removal.

But Bola Tinubu, wey dey campaign to succeed Buhari, don already warn Nigerians say na im go remove am. 'Why I go dey get four cars and dey pay subsidised petrol for Cameroon, for Niger Republic, for Benin Republic?' Tinubu ask amid applause before e become president. 'No matter how long you protest, we go remove subsidy,' e talk.

Tinubu dey refer to the smuggling of subsidised fuel from Nigeria go neighbouring countries where dem dey sell am for higher price. The price difference dey give smugglers incentive to buy cheap subsidised fuel for Nigeria and sell am across border for profit.

People wey dey support removal dey use this arbitrage argument to answer calls for Nigeria to continue subsidising fuel for citizens like some other oil producers do.

Sanusi make similar point when e be Central Bank governor: he ask why for subsidised Saudi Arabia you no see smuggling. He explain say na because neighbouring countries also subsidise fuel, so no room to make profit by moving petrol across border.

For Nigeria e different: subsidised petrol cheap well well compared to neighbours, so e create big market for smugglers.

Vow wey dem fulfil

Tinubu win the election — and e fulfil im promise. On the day wey dem inaugurate am in May 2023, e announce removal of the fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira.

Those two policies follow with sharp rise in inflation and dramatic jump in petrol price — from about 234 naira to as much as 1,200 naira per litre.

The petrol price increase push transport and food costs higher, and e make life hard for many Nigerian families, according to Atiku. Na this background make Atiku promise say if dem elect am president e go bring back the subsidy.

"I wan repeat categorically — wetin I talk, I go return subsidy, I go do am," Atiku tell people. "Nigeria get enough to take care of welfare of her citizens."

E still defend the position after one of im spokespeople look like e contradict am, saying the subsidy removal don push more Nigerians into poverty than any other time for country history.

As other opposition politicians try to use the public interest wey Atiku create, fuel subsidy matter don once again become big political fault line. The issue fit turn to one main theme for Nigeria 2027 presidential election — and another test for Atiku's new run for presidency.

As January 2027 election near, the question be whether Nigerians go accept Atiku promise to restore subsidy or dem go prefer Tinubu palliative measures wey dem dey put to ease pain wey subsidy removal cause.