Ibrahim Ssenyange can finally see the arithmetic adding up. After a decade of growing organic coffee on his farm in Uganda, the numbers tell a story he's long hoped to see.
"I have been tracking the market, and it seems our coffee is in high demand. I am confident that my coffee beans will fetch higher prices than before," Ssenyange tells TRT Afrika.
His optimism echoes across Uganda's coffee sector. The country has emerged as Africa's largest producer of Robusta coffee and ranks among the world's top exporters, with earnings that have already reached historic levels.
Statistics from government sources show that Uganda hit record sales in May 2025, earning close to US $245 million from 47,606.7 tonnes of coffee exported that month.
Data for July has added to the euphoria. The Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) reports that coffee exports that month touched 59,826 tonnes, worth $250.6 million.
During the corresponding period, Ethiopia – traditionally Africa's leading coffee exporter – sold 38,663 tonnes for $268 million in export value.
"Coffee export volume was higher than the previous year on account of a good harvest in most coffee-growing regions of Uganda, especially the Greater Masaka and South Western Regions. The export value of coffee was also higher due to higher volumes," states the UCDA's monthly report for July.
Global market dynamics
The surge in Uganda's coffee fortunes is partly due to disruptions elsewhere.
Brazil and Vietnam, the world's biggest coffee producers, posted low yields after plantations suffered damage from drought and extreme frost. This created space for other producers to fill the gaps in global supply.
"Over the past several years, Uganda has been increasing its coffee production and export. We actually have an increase of close to 3% every year, which means we are consistently growing our exports," Kenneth Barigye, a trade expert, tells TRT Afrika.
"The main reason why Uganda's coffee exports are surpassing Ethiopia's is increased government investment in the coffee sector," he explains.
Processing and markets
At the Jada Coffee processing plant in Kampala, the enthusiasm with which workers go about their daily grind reflects the energy of a sector on the upswing.
The plant, which caters to both local and international markets, purchases beans directly from farmers at prices dictated by demand.
"The global impact of a growth in coffee sales is that we get more employment, we have more cafes... If you visit China, you will hear about cafes springing up everywhere. We want the same to happen here," says Jackie Arinda, chief executive officer at Jada Coffee.
Within the continent, Sudan, Algeria and Morocco are the main buyers of Ugandan coffee. Further afield, the main export destinations include Italy, Germany, Algeria, Belgium, Morocco, India, Spain, Vietnam and the US.
Future projections
World coffee production for 2025-26 is forecast to reach a record 178.7 million bags, which is 4.3 million bags higher than the previous year.
The increase comes on the back of the sector's recovery in Vietnam and Indonesia, plus a record output in Ethiopia.
"World coffee bean exports are forecast to rise by 700,000 bags to 122.3 million as gains from Vietnam, Ethiopia and Indonesia more than offset losses in Brazil and Colombia," reports UCDA.
Trade analysts suggest it may take considerable time for the world's top producers to recover fully, in which case African coffee producers would continue to benefit.
"The Ugandan government has put a lot of emphasis on marketing coffee in more countries, especially those that aren't traditional export destinations for Uganda," Barigye tells TRT Afrika.
Uganda has set itself an ambitious target of producing more than 20 million bags by 2035.
To compete effectively in world markets, the government encourages farmers to maintain quality during post-harvest handling.
Farmers like Ssenyange are elated at the prospect of sustained higher earnings from their produce. They no longer have to scrape by as increased productivity and evolving market dynamics create a heady brew.
