Analysts dey predict say oil price for market go dey continue to dey fall for sometime because of im plenty availability for markets.

Oil prices bin crash go back to 2021 level. For London ICE market, black gold bin dey trade under $59 per barrel days ago.

February futures for Brent don lose almost 2.5%. For small time dem drop under $59. American WTI come cheap reach $55.25 per barrel.

Experts talk say wetin dey push prices down plenty.

Main reason na say production don increase. OPEC+ policy don matter for this matter. Since spring the organisation begin sharply raise production quotas, so for global market plenty extra oil don show.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), production for 2025 don rise by about 3 million barrels per day, while demand only climb by 830 thousand barrels per day.

As result, commercial oil stocks for September rise by 77.7 million barrels — the highest level since July 2021. On top of that, oil held on water inside tankers increase by 80 million barrels.

For the nine months of this year oil stocks grow by 313 million barrels total, or average about 1.15 million barrels per day.

When demand no follow supply

USA still be top producer of black gold, dem dey pump over 13.6 million barrels per day. American companies still dey push efficiency with tech and by consolidating assets.

Other countries wey dey raise production include Brazil, Guyana and Canada.

“Supply dey significantly ahead of demand,” AMarkets lead analyst Igor Rastorguev tell TRT in Russian.

China economy no too dey shine. For November, retail sales growth na only 1.3% year-on-year — the weakest since 2022. Fixed capital investment also drop, private investment fall more than public. This one show business confidence for future dey go down.

Another factor wey dey push prices down na the progress for peace talks about Ukraine. “Oil still dey trade under pressure, because headlines dey show growing consensus about possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine,” Rebecca Baibin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, say.

Experts talk say if ceasefire happen some sanctions on Russia’s oil sector fit dey lifted. That one go reduce risk of future supply disruptions and increase supply for global market.

Workarounds

Even the blockade of tankers wey dey go Venezuela and comot from there no push oil prices up. US reason for the measure include “theft of American assets, terrorism, drug smuggling and human trafficking” by Venezuelan authorities, Donald Trump write for Truth Social.

You fit expect say oil price for black gold for sure go jump, but market dey see am differently. “Venezuelan oil still dey find buyers — about 80% dey go China via the ‘shadow fleet’,” Igor Rastorguev talk.

Kpler data show the blocked vessels dey carry over 20 million barrels. Na the highest level in the last three years.

Bloomberg report say many of those tankers dey anchored for Asian waters, so refineries for the region fit reach them easier.

As Kpler senior oil analyst Muyu Xu point out, even if Washington continue pressure Caracas, China no go face supply shortage until spring.

Still, e hard to fully replace Venezuelan crude.

Sure, alternatives dey, but dem go cost China more money. For example, Canadian Access Western Blend cost about $10 extra. Iranian oil cheaper than North American, but e no reach the quality of Venezuelan Merey.

The further we go, the cheaper oil dey

Analysts expect prices go continue dey fall because production still dey rise.

“Global oil surplus increase significantly in 2025 and e expected say next year e go exceed the 2020 peak by 65%,” World Bank report talk.

Experts note say world demand growth for oil dey slow down, partly because more people dey switch to electric vehicles and hybrids.

IEA forecast say for 2026 supply surplus go be about 3.8 million barrels per day — almost 4% of world demand. OPEC+, aware of these risks, decide for early November to pause increasing output for Jan–Mar next year. The organisation keep December increase small, only 137 thousand barrels per day, Igor Rastorguev remind.

But this na temporary measure. If prices continue to fall, high-cost producers go feel the pressure.

World Bank estimate say average Brent price for 2025 go be $68 per barrel. Next year e fit drop to $60 — the lowest in five years.

US Energy Information Administration (EIA) also expect Brent price for Q1 2026 go touch $55 per barrel.

Experts explain say for the new conditions exporters position dey change. United States dey strengthen as producer thanks to technological flexibility. Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ allies dey lose market share — from 53% in 2016 to forecast 46% in 2026, Igor Rastorguev say.

Venezuela, Russia and Iran dey forced to rely on shadow schemes and Asian buyers, mainly China, wey take 47% of Russian and 85% of Venezuelan exports. But this dependence on one buyer bring new risks and limits.

Experts dey sure say for long-term, success for oil market no go depend only on how much you produce but on production cost, logistics flexibility and how well you fit adapt to changing demand.